向心化抑或离心化?2000—2020年中国城市内部人口分布的演进与规律  

CENTRALIZATION OR DECENTRALLIZATION?THE EVOLUTION TRENDS AND INFLUENTIAL FACTORS OF POPULATION DENSITY DISTRIBUTION OF CHINESE CITIES AT PREFECTRUE LEVEL OR ABOVE FROM 2000 TO 2020

作　　者：张延吉 池胡洁 林胜[1] ZHANG Yan-ji;CHI Hu-Jie;LIN Sheng(School of Humanities and Social Sciences,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350108,China;School of Architecture and Urban-rural Planning,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350108,China;Fuzhou Urban-Rural Spatial Planning Industry Technology Innovation Center,Fuzhou 350108,China)

机构地区：[1]福州大学人文社会科学学院,福州350108 [2]福州大学建筑与城乡规划学院,福州350108 [3]福州市城乡空间规划行业技术创新中心,福州350108

出　　处：《人文地理》2023年第2期137-144,共8页Human Geography

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(21CSH006)。

摘　　要：本文利用2000、2020年World Pop数据,揭示中国地级及以上城市市辖区的人口密度分布、演进趋势及其影响因素,表明:(1)单中心模型对人口密度分布的拟合优度在离心化城市有所降低,在向心化城市保持稳定,大城市大多适用指数函数,中小城市更适用幂函数。(2)2000—2020年理论上的市中心人口密度整体上升,70%、30%的城市分别经历向心化和离心化,东部及高等级城市的向心化趋势强烈,西南城市则易发生离心化。(3)人口规模扩张、居住条件改善、家庭小型化促使人口密度梯度下降,城市化率和居民收入提高令人口向中心汇聚,道路建设和公交优先政策则会助推人口离心化。Based on WorldPop dataset of 2000 and 2020 and monocentric models including negative exponential model,logarithmic model,and power model,this research reveals the evolution trends and driven factors of residential population density distributions of 263 Chinese cities at prefecture level or above.Firstly,we found that the fitting degrees of three monocentric models for population density distribution generally decreased in the decentralized cities,while remained stable in most centralized cities.The application of exponential function was more suitable for large cities,and power function was more suitable for small or medium-sized cities.Secondly,70%and 30%cities have experienced the process of centralization and decentralization over the past 20 years,respectively.The population density gradients of eastern and high-grade cities were higher and their trends of centralization were stronger,while the majority of southwest mountainous cities were more likely to decentralize.Thirdly,both market mechanism and public policy shape the spatial pattern of population density.With the expansion of population scale,improvement of living condition,and shrinkage of family size,the urban population density gradient would drop significantly,or the probability and changing extent of decentralization would rise significantly.The construction of road network and the public transportation priority policy promote decentralization.

关 键 词：人口密度梯度 单中心模型 向心化 离心化 城市空间结构 

分 类 号：K901[历史地理—人文地理学]