基于参数成本估计法的航天器研制生产成本管控  

Cost control of spacecraft development and production based on method of parameter cost estimation

作　　者：张泓翊 夏禹[2] 张博[3] 于喆 李明[3] ZHANG Hong-yi;XIA Yu;ZHANG Bo;YU Zhe;LI Ming(College of Management and Economics,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072;Beijing Institute of Space Science and Technology Information,Beijing 100089;China Academy of Space Technology,Beijing 100089)

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072 [2]北京空间科技信息研究所,北京100089 [3]中国空间技术研究院,北京100089

出　　处：《机械设计》2023年第4期56-63,共8页Journal of Machine Design

基　　金：中国工程院“科技创新新结构与现代化治理重难点问题研究”(2021-HZ-8-2);中国航天科技集团“对标世界一流管理提升研究”(2021GLYJ164);中国空间技术研究院“型号任务技术经济一体化研究”(20221ZL00260)。

摘　　要：针对新阶段航天器成本精细化管控的要求,根据航天器科研生产主要环节与分工协作关系,提出了基于参数成本估计法的航天器二维度三阶段研制生产成本管控模型,以供配电分系统为例进行了案例研究。在论证阶段,探索功能与成本的估算关系,基于参数成本估计法构建成本管控模型;在研制阶段,根据分系统历史成本数据,构建预分预控管控模型将总成本合理分解至各承研所厂;在成本管控阶段,基于蒙特卡洛仿真制订激励-约束政策,统筹航天器创新发展与成本管控要求。案例丰富了成本管理的实践研究,对促进我国宇航企业科研生产模式转型升级具有一定的借鉴意义。In this article,in view of refined cost control in the new stage,according to the main links of spacecraft scientific research and production as well as the division of labor and cooperation,the two-dimension and three-stage development-and-production cost-control model is proposed based on the method of parameter cost estimation.Some case studies are carried out with the power-distribution system as an example.Firstly,in the demonstration stage,the estimation relationship between function and cost is explored,and the cost-control model is set up by means of the method of parameter cost estimation.Secondly,in the development stage,according to the previous data on the cost of the sub-systems,the pre-control cost model is used to decompose the total cost into each institute and factory.Finally,in the cost control stage,the incentive-restraint policy is formulated based on the Monte Carlo simulation,and the requirements of spacecraft innovation development and cost control are coordinated.This study enriches the research on cost management and provides guidance for transformation and update of the scientific research and production mode of aerospace enterprises in our country.

关 键 词：系统工程 参数成本估计 航天器 成本管控 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]