武陵山片区国土开发强度与经济韧性时空耦合特征及互动效应  

Spatio-temporal Coupling and Interactive Effects of Land Development Intensity and Economic Resilience in the Wuling Mountains Area

作　　者：陈勤昌 王兆峰[1] CHEN Qinchang;WANG Zhaofeng(College of Tourism,Hunan Normal University,Changsha 410081,Hunan,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学旅游学院,湖南长沙410081

出　　处：《经济地理》2023年第4期41-50,共10页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41971188);湖南省国内一流培育学科建设项目(地理学-5010002)。

摘　　要：以武陵山片区71个县域单元为研究对象,建构国土开发强度与经济韧性综合评估框架,继而采用耦合协调度模型考察2000—2019年两者耦合协调时空演变特征,最后结合PVAR模型验证武陵山片区国土开发强度与经济韧性的互动效应。结果表明:(1)2000—2019年武陵山片区国土开发强度与经济韧性均呈波动上升态势,分别由期初的0.195、0.117增至期末的0.381、0.328,两者整体水平偏低且增幅和缓。(2)时序演化上,武陵山片区“国土开发强度—经济韧性”复合系统的耦合协调度稳步提升,从期初的中度失调转为良好协调状态,且存在“俱乐部收敛”发展趋向;空间分布上,呈“重庆分片区>湖南分片区>湖北分片区>贵州分片区”的异质性格局,团簇状集聚分布特征明显。(3)武陵山片区国土开发强度与经济韧性存在长期稳定的协整关系,国土开发强度与经济韧性对自身冲击效应大,而国土开发强度对经济韧性的促进作用强于经济韧性对国土开发强度的提升效果。Taking 71 counties in Wuling Mountains area as the research object,this article constructs a comprehensive evaluation framework of land development intensity and economic resilience, and uses the coupling coordination degree model to investigate the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of their coupling coordination in 2000-2019. Based on the PVAR model, it verifies the interactive response relationship between the land development intensity and economic resilience. The results show that: 1) From 2000 to 2019, the land development intensity and economic resilience both show a fluctuating upward trend, from 0.195 and 0.117 in 2000 to 0.381 and 0.328 in 2019, respectively. The overall levels of both are low and the growth rate is moderate. 2) From the perspective of time series evolution, the coupling coordination degree of the complex system of "land development intensity and economic resilience" has been steadily improved,gradually transforming from a moderate imbalance state at the beginning to a good coordination state, and there is a trend of "club convergence". In terms of spatial distribution, it presents a heterogeneous pattern of "ChongqingHunanHubeiGuizhou", with obvious clustering distribution characteristics. 3) There is a long-term stable cointegration relationship between land development intensity and economic resilience. The land development intensity and economic resilience have a large impact effect on themselves,and the promotion effect of land development intensity on economic resilience is stronger than economic resilience on land development intensity.

关 键 词：国土开发强度 经济韧性 耦合协调度模型 精准扶贫 区域协调发展 高质量发展 武陵山片区 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]