宁波市O_(3)与气象因素短期暴露对死亡人数的影响及交互作用  

Effects and interactions of short⁃term exposure to O3 and meteorological factors on the number of deaths in Ningbo City

作　　者：张丽 张晓飞 石国秀 吕康 豆倩 李永红[2] 姚孝元[2] 郑山[1] ZHANG Li;ZHANG Xiaofei;SHI Guoxiu;LYU Kang;DOU Qian;LI Yong-hong;YAO Xiaoyuan;ZHENG Shan(Institute of Epidemiology and Statistics,School of Public Health,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Environmental and Health-Related Product Safety Institute,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 100021,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学研究所,兰州730000 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康相关产品安全所,北京100021

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2023年第5期522-527,539,共7页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：国家科技基础资源调查专项(2017FY101200);国家自然科学基金(41705122);甘肃省生态环境科学设计研究院委托项目(R20210005)。

摘　　要：目的探索O_(3)与气象因素短期暴露对死亡人数的影响及交互作用。方法基于宁波市2014―2018年死因、气象及环境监测数据,利用分布滞后非线性模型(distributed lag nonlinear model,DLNM)分析宁波市O_(3)与气象因素短期暴露对死亡人数的影响及交互作用。结果低温、低温湿指数(temperature⁃humidity index,THI)、低风寒指数(wind chill index,WCI)能够增加全因死亡、呼吸系统及循环系统疾病人群的死亡风险;O_(3)短期暴露对全因死亡、呼吸系统及循环系统疾病死亡风险的影响均有统计学意义(均有P<0.05),其效应最大值分别出现在累积滞后06、07和06 d,RR值分别为1.008(95%CI:1.004~1.011)、1.015(95%CI:1.007~1.022)和1.009(95%CI:1.004~1.014);短期O_(3)暴露与高温、高THI、高WCI对全因死亡、呼吸系统及循环系统疾病人群死亡风险具有协同增强作用,且该效应在≥65岁人群中最为显著。结论宁波市O_(3)与气象因素短期暴露对死亡人数存在一定的影响,且存在交互作用,其中≥65岁人群可能为潜在高危人群。Objective To explore the impact and interactions of short⁃term exposure to O3 and meteorological factors on the number of deaths in Ningbo City.Methods Using cause of death,meteoro⁃logical,and environmental monitoring data from Ningbo City,Zhejiang Province,a distributed lag nonlin⁃ear model(DLNM)was employed to analyze the effects and interactions of short⁃term exposure to O3 and meteorological factors on the number of deaths.Results Low temperature,low temperature⁃humidity in⁃dex(THI),and low wind chill index(WCI)increased the risk of death from all causes,respiratory dis⁃eases,and circulatory diseases.Short⁃term exposure to O3 has a significant effect on the risk of all⁃cause mortality,respiratory and circulatory mortality(all P<0.05),with the maximum effect observed at cumu⁃lative lag of 06,07 and 06 days,which were 1.008(95%CI:1.004-1.011),1.015(95%CI:1.007-1.022)and 1.009(95%CI:1.004-1.014),respectively.Short⁃term exposure of O3 and high tempera⁃ture,high THI,and high WCI showed a significant synergistic enhancement effect on the risk of all⁃cause mortality,respiratory and circulatory diseases,with the most pronounced effect observed in individuals aged≥65 years.Conclusions Short⁃term exposure to O3 and meteorological factors in Ningbo has a cer⁃tain impact on the number of deaths,with significant interactions observed.The population aged≥65 years may represent a potential high⁃risk group.

关 键 词：O_(3)气象因素 交互作用 死亡风险 分布滞后非线性模型 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学] X503.1[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]