芜湖市小儿肠套叠流行特征及与气象因素之间的相关性分析  

A correlation analysis between epidemiological characteristics of pediatric intussusception and me⁃teorological factors in Wuhu

作　　者：褚振杰 刘洁 随帮志 朱庆华 夏雨 段光琦 CHU Zhenjie;LIU Jie;SUI Bangzhi;ZHU Qinghua;XIA Yu;DUAN Guangqi(Department of Pediatric Surgery,First Affiliated Hospital of Wannan Medical College,Wuhu 241000,China)

机构地区：[1]皖南医学院第一附属医院小儿外科,芜湖241000

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2023年第5期598-604,共7页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：安徽省自然科学基金(1808085MH271)。

摘　　要：目的了解芜湖市近6年来小儿肠套叠流行病学特征及其与部分气象因素的相关性,在增加对肠套叠发病认识的同时可为肠套叠预测模型的建立提供理论依据。方法回顾性收集2014年4月―2019年12月于皖南医学院第一附属医院就诊的小儿肠套叠病例,分析其相关统计学特征和部分临床特征,采用圆形分布法和系统聚类中的Q型聚类分析其季节性,用Poisson回归分析研究肠套叠的发病与纳入的6种气象因素之间的相关性。结果共收集肠套叠1026例,其中原发性肠套叠986例,男女性别比为1.87∶1,<2岁儿童占52.02%。主要临床表现为腹痛或哭闹(69.57%,686/986)、呕吐(62.98%,621/986)、血便(22.41%,221/986)等。结合圆形分布法(Z=7.62,P<0.001)和聚类分析结果,肠套叠的发病有明显的高峰(5―6月),证明其发病存在季节性。Poisson回归分析结果显示:每月肠套叠发病数与月日照总量呈正相关(β=0.004,P=0.005),与月平均风速(β=-0.433,P=0.016)、月平均气压(β=-0.064,P<0.001)、月平均气温(β=-0.066,P<0.001)呈负相关,与月降水量、月平均相对湿度无明显相关(均有P>0.05)。结论在芜湖市,肠套叠的发病具有一定的季节性,并与气候因素相关,好发于日照量足、风速和平均气压较低且气温适中的月份。Objective This study aims to elucidate the epidemiological characteristics of pediat⁃ric intussusception over the past six years and its association with meteorological factors in Wuhu,with a view to enhancing our understanding of the condition and providing a theoretical foundation for the devel⁃opment of predictive models.Methods A retrospective analysis was performed on the statistical and clin⁃ical features of pediatric intussusception cases treated at the First Affiliated Hospital of Wannan Medical College between April 2014 and December 2019.Seasonal patterns were assessed using the circular distri⁃bution method and Q⁃type clustering in systematic clustering.The Poisson regression was used to analyze the correlations between intussusception incidence and six meteorological factors.Results A total of 1026 intussusception cases were collected,including 986 primary intussusceptions.The male⁃to⁃female ratio was 1.87∶1,with 52.02%of patients being no more than two years old.The predominant clinical symptoms were abdominal pain or crying(69.57%,686/986),vomiting(62.98%,621/986),and bloody stool(22.41%,221/986).Circular distribution analysis(Z=7.62,P<0.001)and clustering analysis revealed distinct peaks in intussusception incidence from May to June,indicating seasonality.Poisson regression analysis demonstrated positive correlations between monthly intussusception incidence and total monthly sunshine(β=0.004,P=0.005),and negative correlations with monthly average wind speed(β=-0.433,P=0.016),monthly average air pressure(β=-0.064,P<0.001),and monthly average air temperature(β=-0.066,P<0.001).No significant associations were found with monthly precipitation and monthly average relative humidity(all P>0.05).Conclusions In Wuhu,intussuscep⁃tion exhibits seasonal occurrence patterns and is influenced by climate factors.Months characterized by a⁃bundant sunshine,low wind speed,average air pressure,and moderate temperature are associated with higher incidence rates.

关 键 词：肠套叠 流行病学 气象 儿童 

分 类 号：R726.1[医药卫生—儿科]