2011—2021年武威市流行性腮腺炎流行特征及短期预测  

Epidemiological characteristics and short-term prediction of mumps in Wuwei city during 2011-2021

作　　者：郑艳妮 赵玉锐 朱东升 李昕蓉 冯亚莉 杨露 王金玉[3] 李盛 ZHENG Yanni;ZHAO Yurui;ZHU Dongsheng;LI Xinrong;FENG Yali;YANG Lu;WANG Jinyu;LI Sheng(Department of Public Health,The First People's Hospital of Lanzhou,Lanzhou,Gansu 730050,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]兰州市第一人民医院公共卫生科,甘肃兰州730050 [2]甘肃中医药大学公共卫生学院 [3]兰州大学基础医学院

出　　处：《中国预防医学杂志》2023年第3期213-217,共5页Chinese Preventive Medicine

基　　金：甘肃省科技计划(21YF5FA169);兰州市科技计划(2022-ZD-10)。

摘　　要：目的 分析2011—2021年武威市流行性腮腺炎的流行特征,并利用自回归积分滑动平均模型(auto regressive integrated moving average model,ARIMA)预测其短期发病趋势,为流行性腮腺炎的预防和控制措施的制订提供理论支撑。方法 收集2011—2021年武威市流行性腮腺炎发病资料进行流行病学特征分析,并利用R 4.1. 0建立ARIMA模型,预测其短期发病趋势。结果 2011—2021年武威市流行性腮腺炎报告发病数4 441例,年均发病率8.90/10万,发病群体以学生为主,共报告病例3 193例(71.90%);发病男性多于女性,性别比为1.70∶1;5~<20岁年龄组发病数最多,共报告病例3 515例(79.15%);报告发病数居首位的为凉州区(48.61%);报告年均发病率最高为古浪县(48.69/10万)。发病呈现明显的季节性双峰分布,主峰为11月至次年1月,共报告病例1 470例(33.10%);次高峰为4-5月,共报告病例951例(21.41%)。模型构建结果显示,ARIMA (2,1,0)(0,0,1)12为最优模型,其参数MASE为0.326,RMSE为1.337,MAE为-8.052,AIC为417.270,BIC为428.386。模型预测结果显示,预测值与观测值整体趋势变化一致,绝对误差平均值为0.25,相对误差平均值为0.42。结论 2011—2021年武威市流行性腮腺炎发病呈下降趋势,建立的ARIMA模型拟合程度较高,发病群体主要是学生,应做好学校卫生,加强学校流行性腮腺炎疫情监测。Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Wuwei during 2011 and 2021,and to predict the short-term incidence trend using auto regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model,so as to provide theoretical support for the formulation of prevention and control measures for mumps.Methods The incidence data of mumps in Wuwei city from 2011 to 2021 were collected for epidemiological analysis,and the ARIMA model was constructed by using R 4.1.0 to predict the short-term incidence trend of mumps.Results From 2011 to 2021,a total of 4441 mumps cases were reported in Wuwei city,with an average annual incidence rate of 8.90/100000.Majority cases were students,accounting for 71.90%(3193/4441)of total cases.There were more male cases than female ones with the ratio of 1.70∶1,and 79.15%(3515/4441)cases were in the age group of 5−<20.The highest number of reported cases was in Liangzhou district,with a total of 2159 cases(48.61%,2159/4441);The highest reported average annual incidence rate was in Gulang county,which was 48.69 per 100000.The incidence showed a distinct seasonal bimodal distribution,with the main peak from November to January,and a total of 1470 cases(33.10%)were reported.The secondary peak was from April to May,with a total of 951 cases(21.41%,951/4441)reported.The model construction results showed that ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,0,1)12 was the optimal model,with MASE of 0.326,RMSE of 1.337,MAE of−8.052,AIC of 417.270,and BIC of 428.386.The model prediction results showed that the predicted values were consistent with the overall trend change of the observed values,with the average absolute error of 0.25 and the average relative error of 0.42.Conclusions From 2011 to 2021,the incidence of mumps in Wuwei city shows a downward trend.The established ARIMA model is well-fitted.Since student cases are predominant,it’s suggested to strengthen the monitoring of mumps epidemic in schools.

关 键 词：流行性腮腺炎 流行病学特征分析 自回归积分滑动平均模型 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]