中国居民2008—2020年故意伤害死亡趋势分析及预测  

Intentional injury mortality among Chinese residents:2008–2020 surveillance data-based trend analysis and prediction

作　　者：张梦鸽 李传苍 孟晶婧 屈梦冰 蔡倩 范浩浩 孙亮[1] ZHANG Mengge;LI Chuancang;MENG Jingjing(School of Public Health,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou,Henan Province 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学公共卫生学院,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《中国公共卫生》2023年第5期627-632,共6页Chinese Journal of Public Health

摘　　要：目的 了解中国居民2008—2020年故意伤害死亡趋势并对2021—2025年的故意伤害死亡率进行预测,为开展故意伤害预防工作提供参考依据。方法 收集《中国死因监测数据集(2008—2020)》中各死因监测点人口和分性别、年龄段、地区和城乡的故意伤害死亡数据,通过计算故意伤害粗死亡率和标化死亡率来描述死亡状况,采用Joinpoint回归分析模型分析标化死亡率变化趋势,并应用灰色模型预测2021—2025年的故意伤害死亡率。结果 中国居民故意伤害、自杀及后遗症、他杀及后遗症的标化死亡率分别从2008年的11.10/10万、10.11/10万和1.01/10万下降到2020年的5.76/10万、5.42/10万和0.31/10万(AAPC=–5.85%、–5.62%、–10.77%,均P <0.001);男性和女性居民故意伤害的标化死亡率分别从2008年的12.77/10万和9.70/10万下降到2020年的6.99/10万和4.58/10万(AAPC=–5.50%和–6.12%,均P <0.001),其中女性居民2008—2018年故意伤害标化死亡率呈下降趋势(APC=–7.31%,P <0.001),而2018—2020年故意伤害标化死亡率虽有上升但差异无统计学意义(APC=0.04%,P=0.995);1~4、 15~44、 45~64和≥65岁居民故意伤害的标化死亡率分别从2008年的0.02/10万、0.59/10万、0.86/10万和0.77/10万下降到2020年0.01/10万、0.31/10万、0.46/10万和0.39/10万(AAPC=–6.01%、–5.37%、–5.42%和–6.17%,均P <0.01);东部地区、中部地区和西部地区居民故意伤害的标化死亡率分别从2008年的9.08/10万、14.37/10万和10.73/10万下降到2020年的4.77/10万、6.92/10万和5.90/10万(AAPC=–5.53%、–6.07%和–5.42%,均P <0.001);城市和农村居民故意伤害的标化死亡率分别从2008年的6.69/10万和14.06/10万下降到2020年的4.18/10万和6.67/10万(AAPC=–4.56%和–6.71%,均P <0.001);灰色模型预测结果显示,中国居民2021、2022、2023、2024和2025年故意伤害死亡率依次为6.07/10万、5.83/10万、5.60/10万、5.38/10万和5.16/10万。结论 中国居民2008—20Objective To examine the trend in intentional injury mortality during 2008–2020 among Chinese residents and to predict the mortality rate of years of 2021–2025 in the population for providing evidence to intentional injury prevention.Methods The data on gender-,age-,region-specific intentional injury mortality for years of 2008–2020 among the populations of surveillance sites across China were extracted from National Cause-of-Death Surveillance Dataset.Yearly crude and standardized rate were calculated to describe intentional injury mortality.Joinpoint regression analysis model was used to analyze changing trend in standardized mortality rates,and grey model was applied to predict intentional injury mortality rates for years of 2021–2025.Results For the whole population surveyed,the standardized mortality rate(per 100000)decreased significantly from 2008 to 2020 for intentional injury(from 11.10 to 5.76),suicide and sequelae(10.11 to 5.42),and homicide and sequelae(1.01 to 0.31)(average annual percent change[AAPC]=–5.85%,–5.62%,–10.77%)(all P<0.001),respectively.For the male population,the standardized mortality rate of intentional injury decreased significantly from 12.77 to 6.99 during the whole period(P<0.001,APPC=–5.50%);while,for the female population,there was a significant decrease from 2010 to 2018(annual percent change[APC]=–7.31%,P<0.001)but a unsignificant increase from 2018 to 2020(APC=0.04%,P=0.995)in the standardized mortality rate,though the rate decreased significantly from 9.70 to 4.58 for the whole period from 2008 to 2020(P<0.001,APPC=–6.12%).The mortality rate of intentional injury decreased significantly from 2008 to 2020 for the populations aged 1–4 years(0.02 to 0.01,AAPC=–6.01%),15–44 years(0.59 to 0.31,AAPC=–5.37),45–64 years(0.86 to 0.46,AAPC=–5.42%),and≥65 years(0.77 to 0.39,AAPC=–6.17%)(P<0.01 for all).The standardized mortality rate of intentional injury decreased significantly from 2008 to 2020 for the populations in eastern region(9.08 to 4.77,AAP

关 键 词：故意伤害 死亡 趋势分析 中国居民 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]