居住地降雨量对老年人虚弱状态影响广义线性混合模型分析  

Effect of local rainfall on frailty among older adults:a generalized linear mixed model analysis on CLHLS data

作　　者：周芬芬 周文愫 王文娟 凌莉[1] ZHOU Fenfen;ZHOU Wensu;WANG Wenjuan(Faculty of Medical Statistics,School of Public Health,Sun Yatsen University,Guangzhou,Guangdong Province 510080,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学公共卫生学院医学统计系,广东广州510080

出　　处：《中国公共卫生》2023年第4期499-504,共6页Chinese Journal of Public Health

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(U1911204;51861125203);国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0405900);广东省水利厅创新研究项目(0227;0810)。

摘　　要：目的探究中国老年人虚弱状态与居住地降雨量之间的关联。方法以2005-2014年中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查(CLHLS)所获取的数据为基础,对10424名≥65岁老年人进行重复测量分析,虚弱状态由虚弱指数(FI)评估,利用广义线性混合模型结合自然立方样条函数探讨居住地降雨量与虚弱状态的关联。结果2005年基线时期调查对象平均年龄为(82.84±11.30)岁,虚弱患病率为18.6%(1936/10424),在2014年完成4次随访后,虚弱患病率增加至27.8%(709/2553)。多因素回归分析结果显示,居住在年平均降雨量较高地区的老年人患虚弱的可能性低(OR=0.60,95%CI=0.50~0.71),未发现居住地降雨量与老年人虚弱前期状态的发生有关。结论居住地降雨量是老年人虚弱的保护因素,可针对不同地区的降雨量为老年人制定适应性策略。Objective To evaluate the relationship between local rainfall and frailty in the elderly.Methods The information on 10424 elderly aged 65 years and above were extracted from four rounds of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey(CLHLS)conducted between 2005 and 2014 across China.Frailty index(FI)was used to assess frail status of the elderly;generalized linear mixed model and natural cubic spline function were adopted to explore the association of local rainfall with the prevalence of frailty.Results The baseline prevalence of frailty was 18.6%for all the elderly aged 82.84±11.30 years at baseline survey;at the last follow-up,the frailty prevalence increased to 27.8%.The results of multivariate regression analysis showed that the elderly living in regions with higher annual average local rainfall(highest quartile)had a lower risk of frailty(odds ratio=0.60,95%confidence interval:0.50-0.71)compared to those living in regions with lower local rainfall(lowest quartile);while the correlation of local rainfall with prefrailty of the elderly was not significant.Conclusion Local rainfall has a protective effect on the frailty of the elderly and specific concern should be paid when developing relevant healthcare strategies for the elderly in regions with different amount of rainfall.

关 键 词：虚弱 降雨量 老年人 广义线性混合模型 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]