中国禾谷类作物种子质量指标的模拟分析与应用  

Seed Quality Indexes’Models for Cereal Crops in China:Simulation and Application

作　　者：金石桥[1] 晋芳[1] 刘丰泽 任雪贞 孙全 许乃银[2] JIN Shiqiao;JIN Fang;LIU Fengze;REN Xuezhen;SUN Quan;XU Naiyin(National Agro-Tech Extension and Service Center,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100125;Institute of Industrial Crops,Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Nanjing 210014)

机构地区：[1]全国农业技术推广服务中心,北京100125 [2]江苏省农业科学院经济作物研究所,南京210014

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2023年第15期22-29,共8页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家标准制修订项目“农产品质量安全标准体系建设”(20205249-Q-326);农业生物育种重大项目“种业质量安全与标识全程溯源支撑体系建设”(2022ZD04019)。

摘　　要：种业竞争的核心是种子质量竞争,模拟种子质量指标变化动态,旨在适时适量优化质量标准,促进种业高质量发展。以2016—2020年禾谷类作物种子质量抽检数据为依据,构建水稻、玉米和小麦种子质量指标的Logistic模型,模拟各指标变化动态。结果表明,17个种子质量指标模型的决定系数都达到极显著水平,模型拟合精度均达到好或非常好水平。基于模拟分析结果,建议种子质量标准中的水稻杂交种纯度由96%提升到97%;水稻净度由98%提升到99%;玉米净度由99%提升到99.4%;玉米发芽率由85%大幅提升到90%左右;北方粳稻和玉米水分标准分别调整为15.0%和13.2%;其余指标不调整或微调。本研究的结论可为禾谷类作物种子质量标准修订提供参考依据。The competition in seed industry is essentially competing for seed quality.Simulation analysis of the dynamic change of seed quality indexes aims at optimizing the seed quality standard timely and appropriately,and promoting the high quality development of seed industry.Based on the survey data of cereal crop seed quality inspection from 2016 to 2020,this study constructed and validated a serial of Logistic models of rice,maize and wheat seed quality indexes to simulate the change dynamics of seed quality indexes.The results showed that,all the determination coefficients of the 17 constructed Logistic models of seed quality indexes reached extremely significant level,and the goodness of fit of the models also reached excellent or extremely excellent level.On the basis of the simulation analysis,the purity standard of hybrid rice seed in the current standard was raised from 96%to 97%;the clarity index of rice was raised from 98%to 99%;the clarity index of maize was raised from 99%to 99.4%;the threshold value of maize germination rate was advised from 85%to around 90%;the moisture standard of japonica rice and maize in north China was adjusted to 15.0%and 13.2%,respectively;other threshold values of seed quality indexes of cereal crops were adjusted or only had minor revising.This study can provide reference for seed quality standard revision of cereal crops.

关 键 词：禾谷类作物 种子 质量标准 LOGISTIC模型 模拟分析 

分 类 号：S330.2[农业科学—作物遗传育种]