北极西北航道船舶通航风险分析  

Analysis on the navigable window period of ships in the Northwest Passage of the Arctic

作　　者：王发根 胡甚平[1] 焦喜鑫 付姗姗 席永涛[1] 韩冰 Wang Fagen;Hu Shenping;Jiao Xixin;Fu Shanshan;Xi Yongtao;Han Bing(Merchant Marine College,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China;College of Ocean Science and Engineering,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China;College of Transportation and Communication,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China;Shanghai Ship and Shipping Research Institute,Shanghai 200135,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学商船学院,上海201306 [2]上海海事大学海洋科学与工程学院,上海201306 [3]上海海事大学交通运输学院,上海201306 [4]上海船舶运输研究所,上海200135

出　　处：《极地研究》2023年第2期326-335,共10页Chinese Journal of Polar Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFC 2801005)资助。

摘　　要：北极海冰的融化使得北极西北航道通航成为可能,有必要探讨北极西北航道的安全通航风险控制问题。针对北极西北航道冰情和复杂通航环境下的船舶通航窗口期,本研究采用时间维度上的过程风险评估方法,构建了基于系统动力学的北极西北航道通航风险评估模型,结合北极西北航道6条航线的场景条件,通过2015—2021年7年间风、雾、浪、海冰的月平均变化的数据分析,进行北极西北航道船舶通航过程风险仿真,提出了北极西北航道船舶通航窗口期。仿真结果表明:北极西北航道全年可通航的时间窗口为8月下旬至9月上旬,而选择阿蒙森湾—威尔士亲王海峡—巴罗海峡—巴芬湾和阿蒙森湾—维多利亚海峡—皮尔海峡—巴芬湾两条航线的船舶通航风险相对较低,从发展上看,随着海冰快速融化北极西北航道具有较高的通航潜力。Melting of Arctic sea ice makes navigation of the Arctic Northwest Route(ANR)possible,and it is necessary to determine the navigable window of the ANR.Focusing on the ice conditions and the complex navigation environment of the ANR,a navigation risk assessment model was constructed based on system dynamics,and the process risk assessment method in the temporal dimension was proposed for determining the navigable window for shipping on the ANR.Six routes were established as simulation scenarios,and in combination with objective data of monthly average changes in wind,fog,waves,and sea ice during 2015–2021,the navigability risk for shipping on the ANR was simulated.Results showed that the navigable window of the ANR is from late August to early September;and that the optimal route is via Amundsen Bay–Prince of Wales Strait–Barrow Strait–Baffin Bay and Amundsen Bay–Victoria Strait–Peel Strait–Baffin Bay.The navigability risk for shipping on the two routes is relatively low.Overall,the ANR generally has a relatively high level of navigability.

关 键 词：北极 西北航道 风险评估 船舶通航 船舶通航窗口期 系统动力学 

分 类 号：U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]