基于元胞自动机模型的城市土地利用变化预测研究  

Study on Urban Land Use Change Prediction Based on Cellular Automata Model

作　　者：孙健 莫晨剑 魏晓琴 邱犇 SUN Jian;MO Chenjian;WEI Xiaoqin;QIU Ben(Taizhou Environmental Science Design and Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Taizhou 318000,China)

机构地区：[1]台州市环境科学设计研究院有限公司,浙江台州318000

出　　处：《中国资源综合利用》2023年第5期51-53,共3页China Resources Comprehensive Utilization

摘　　要：随着城市化进程的加快,城市土地利用变化需要进行有效的模拟和预测。本文采用基于人工神经网络(ANN)的元胞自动机(CA)模型,预测“十四五”时期台州市土地利用变化情况。结果表明,随着“十四五”时期台州市城市化的推进,中心城区的空间辐射能力逐渐增强,建设用地逐渐扩张,大量占用中心城区周边耕地。“十四五”时期,台州市应加强中心城区周边耕地的保护,严格限制建设用地无序扩张,缓解城市发展与耕地保护的矛盾。With the acceleration of urbanization,effective simulation and prediction of urban land use changes are needed.This paper uses a cellular automata(CA) model based on artificial neural networks(ANN) to predict the land use changes in Taizhou City during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.The results indicate that with the advancement of urbanization in Taizhou City during the 14th Five-Year Plan period,the spatial radiation capacity of the central urban area gradually increases,and the construction land gradually expands,occupying a large amount of farmland around the central urban area.During the 14th Five-Year Plan period,Taizhou City should strengthen the protection of farmland around the central urban area,strictly restrict the disorderly expansion of construction land,and alleviate the contradiction between urban development and farmland protection.

关 键 词：城市化 土地利用变化 ANN CA模型 预测 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]