基于SD的绿洲城市群水资源保障能力与发展模式研究  

Research on the Water Resources Guarantee Capacity and the Development Mode of Urumqi⁃Changji Integrated Oasis Urban Agglomeration Based on SD

作　　者：孙建光[1] SUN Jianguang(Institute of Statistics and Data Science,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economic,Urumqi 830012,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学统计与数据科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《人民黄河》2023年第6期59-63,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(19BGL186)。

摘　　要：针对绿洲城市群在城市化进程中存在的水资源短缺等问题,构建基于人口、经济、水资源和生态环境子系统的乌(乌鲁木齐市)昌(昌吉市)一体化绿洲城市群水资源保障能力系统动力学(SD)模型,并根据不同发展目标,设计现状延续型、经济发展型、资源节约型、环境友好型和协调发展型水资源配置方案,各方案水资源保障能力、不同产业需水量及用水效率模拟结果表明:从综合考虑生产、生活和生态环境角度,协调发展型方案的城市群水资源综合保障能力最大,资源节约型和环境友好型方案次之,未来城市群发展模式需实现基于资源节约和环境友好的经济协调发展;协调发展型方案2030年的水资源供需比为0.98,基本能保障未来城市化发展的水资源需求,第一产业用水量减少,第二产业和第三产业用水量增加,用水结构得到优化,用水效率得到提高,生活用水得到保障,生态环境得到改善。Aiming at the water shortage and other problems existing in the urbanization process of oasis urban agglomeration,the system dynamics model(SD)of water resources security capacity of Urumqi⁃Changji integrated oasis urban agglomeration based on population,economy,water resources and ecological environment subsystems was built.According to the different development goals,the simulation schemes of water resources allocation of status quo continuation,economic development,saving resources,environmental friendliness and coordinated development were designed.The results show that from the perspective of comprehensive consideration of production,living and ecological environment,the coordinated development plan has the best comprehensive water resources guarantee ability,followed by the resource⁃saving and environment⁃friendly scheme.The future development mode of urban agglomeration should realize the coordinated development of resources environment and economy based on resources⁃saving and environment friendly.The ratio of water resources supply and demand of the coordinated development plan in 2030 of the oasis urban agglomeration is 0.98,which can basically guarantee the water resources demand of the urbanization of the urban agglomeration in the future.The water consumption of the primary industry decreases,the water consumption of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry increases.Moreover,the water use structure is constantly optimized,the use efficiency of wa⁃ter use is improved,and the domestic water consumption can be guaranteed and the ecological environment is improved.

关 键 词：水资源 保障能力 SD模型 乌昌一体化 绿洲城市群 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]