海面温度半球间偶极子模态对7—11月北半球平均热带气旋强度年代际变化的调控  

Modulation of SST inter-hemispheric dipole mode on decadal variability of July-November average tropical cyclone intensity in the Northern Hemisphere

作　　者：杜雪晴 李建平[2,3,4,5] 李飞 DU Xueqing;LI Jianping;LI Fei(College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography of Ministry of Education,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Academy of the Future Ocean,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Laoshan Laboratory,Qingdao 266237,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院,山东青岛266100 [2]中国海洋大学深海圈层与地球系统前沿科学中心,山东青岛266100 [3]中国海洋大学物理海洋教育部重点实验室,山东青岛266100 [4]中国海洋大学未来海洋学院,山东青岛266100 [5]崂山实验室,山东青岛266237

出　　处：《海洋气象学报》2023年第2期1-19,共19页Journal of Marine Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基础科学中心项目(42288101);崂山实验室科技创新项目(LSKJ202202600);山东省自然科学基金重大基础研究项目(ZR2019ZD12)。

摘　　要：海面温度半球间偶极子(sea surface temperature inter-hemispheric dipole,SSTID)是全球海面温度(sea surface temperature,SST)异常的重要模态之一,表现为南、北两半球间SST的反相变化。此文探究了7—11月SSTID对7—11月北半球平均热带气旋(tropical cyclone,TC)强度年代际变率的超前影响。观测分析表明,SSTID超前7—11月北半球平均TC强度年代际分量8~11 a,并在提前时间为9 a时达到最大正相关。通过海洋-大气耦合桥理论进一步分析表明,7—11月北半球TC活跃区海洋可以作为海洋桥,以SST的形式存储超前约9 a的SSTID信号。同时北半球TC活跃区大气作为大气桥将超前约9 a的SSTID信号传递到大气中,进而作用于7—11月北半球平均TC强度,该过程以TC潜在生成指数为表征。北半球TC活跃区的垂直风切变和600 hPa相对湿度的综合影响在其中起关键作用。由此建立了基于SSTID的7—11月北半球平均TC强度年代际变化预测模型,该模型表现出良好的后报性能。利用该模型对2021—2029年7—11月北半球平均TC强度预测表明,7—11月北半球平均TC强度将以持续增强为主并在2020年代末达到破纪录的强度。The sea surface temperature inter-hemispheric dipole(SSTID)is an important mode of global sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies,characterized by an anti-phase variation of SST between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.In this paper,we investigate the influence of SSTID during the period of July-November on decadal variability of July-November average tropical cyclone(TC)intensity in the Northern Hemisphere(NH).The observation analysis shows that July-November SSTID leads the decadal variation component of NH July-November average TC intensity by 8-11 years,with the greatest significant positive correlation at the lead time of 9 years.Further analysis with the coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge theory shows that the ocean of the NH TC active regions,characterized by SST,acts as an ocean bridge to store the accumulated signal of SSTID leading about 9 years.And the atmosphere over the NH TC active regions could convey SSTID impact onto the decadal NH July-November average TC intensity as an atmospheric bridge,represented by TC genesis potential index.The synthetical impact of vertical wind shear and relative humidity at 600 hPa over the NH TC active regions plays a key role.A July-November SSTID-based linear model for predicting decadal variation of NH July-November average TC intensity is constructed with good hindcast performance.The NH July-November average TC intensity during the period of 2021-2029 is predicted to mainly keep intensifying and even reach a record-breaking intensity in the late 2020s.

关 键 词：热带气旋 海面温度半球间偶极子 7—11月北半球平均热带气旋强度 年代际变化 

分 类 号：P461.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]