基于器材分类的维修器材消耗组合预测方法研究  

Research on the prediction method of maintenance equipment consumption combination based on equipment classification

作　　者：梁辉 刘铁林 赵建新 张连武 王晓磊 LIANG Hui;LIU Tielin;ZHAO Jianxin;ZHANG Lianwu;WANG Xiaolei(PLA Army Engineering University Shijiazhuang Campus,Shijiazhuang 050000;PLA Army Research Institute,Shijiazhuang 050003,China)

机构地区：[1]陆军工程大学石家庄校区,河北石家庄050003 [2]陆军研究院特种装备研究所,河北石家庄050003

出　　处：《指挥控制与仿真》2023年第3期50-56,共7页Command Control & Simulation

摘　　要：维修器材消耗预测通常采用单一的预测模型,适用范围较为狭窄,同时对整装维修器材消耗预测的精准性不高。综合考虑装备维修器材稳定性消耗特征,采用基于器材分类的组合预测方法,开展装备维修器材消耗预测。组合预测方法融合了指数平滑方法、Croston方法、TSB方法等的优势,分别对消耗稳定和消耗不稳定的器材进行了预测。结果表明,组合预测方法有效避免了单一预测模型的局限性,具有较为广泛的适用性,提高了维修器材消耗预测的精度。Maintenance equipment consumption forecast usually adopts a single prediction model,which has a narrow scope of application and is not accurate in predicting the consumption of complete maintenance equipment.In this paper,the stability consumption characteristics of equipment and maintenance equipment are considered.The comprehensive prediction method of the classification of equipment consumption forecast is carried out.The combination prediction method combines the advantages of the exponential smoothing method,Croston method and TSB method to predict the materials with sTab.consumption and unsTab.consumption respectively.The results verify that the combination forecasting method which avoids the limitation of single forecasting model,has more extensive applicability and improves the accuracy of maintenance material consumption forecasting.

关 键 词：维修器材 消耗预测 器材分类 组合预测方法 

分 类 号：E92[军事—军事装备学]