结构化分析方法应用的局限与反思  

Reflecting on the Limitations of Applying Structured Analytic Techniques in Intelligence

作　　者：夏汇川[1] Xia Huichuan

机构地区：[1]北京大学信息管理系,北京100871

出　　处：《情报理论与实践》2023年第6期79-85,54,共8页Information Studies:Theory & Application

摘　　要：[目的/意义]休厄提出的结构化分析方法是国外比较流行的一种情报研究方法并受到国内情报学界的广泛推介。然而,结构化分析方法在应用中存在的问题与局限却并未得到国内情报学者的足够重视。[方法/过程]介绍结构化分析方法的源起与发展,分析国内结构化分析方法相关研究的主题与局限,阐述结构化分析方法近年来在国外受到的诸多理论与实践上的质疑与批判。[结果/结论]情报研究方法的借鉴与运用不可脱离情报任务场景,而需因地制宜、因人而异。我国情报工作者应注意避免对国外流行的情报研究方法如结构化分析方法的简单照搬,应当重视针对具体的情报任务场景运用合适的分析工具,探索并构建符合国情和专业领域情报工作特点与要求的情报研究方法。[Purpose/significance]Structured Analytic Techniques(SATs)proposed by R.J.Heuer have been popular in the Intelligence Community(IC)abroad and have been introduced and recommended by numerous Chinese scholars.However,SATs’problems and limitations have not been discussed extensively in the Chinese IC.[Method/process]This paper first introduces the origin and development of SATs;analyzes the relevant research on SATs in the Chinese IC;then enumerates and elaborates the recent critiques on SATs’limitations.[Result/conclusion]This paper concludes that intelligence analysis methods should be examined with the specific contexts and the cognitive states of intelligence analysts in China.We should avoid a simple copy of foreign intelligence analysis methods and endeavor to explore and develop our analysis methods to fit and serve our specific intelligence contexts and requirements.

关 键 词：结构化分析 竞争性假设分析 情报分析 众包模式 

分 类 号：G350[文化科学—情报学]