基于主题扩散演化滞后的研究前沿趋势预测方法研究  

Research on Fronts Trend Prediction Method Based on the Lag of Topic Diffusion Evolution

作　　者：刘自强 岳丽欣 方曙[2] Liu Ziqiang

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学新闻与传播学院,江苏南京210023 [2]中国科学院成都文献情报中心,四川成都610041

出　　处：《情报理论与实践》2023年第6期145-154,共10页Information Studies:Theory & Application

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于主题扩散演化滞后的研究前沿识别及趋势预测研究”(项目编号:72104110);江苏省双创博士项目(项目编号:JSSCBS20210319);江苏高校哲学社会科学研究一般项目“基于神经网络嵌入的科学知识网络社区结构演化模式研究”(项目编号:2022SJYB0253)的成果之一。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]从微观视角把握研究前沿主题在基金项目、论文数据中的关联关系,有助于准确把握科学知识生长中的研究前沿活动机理,对于研究前沿、新兴趋势识别和多源科技文献融合等工作具有一定的实践指导意义。[方法/过程]首先,利用LDA模型进行基金、论文研究主题探测;然后,综合新兴度、关注度指标和战略坐标图进行初始研究前沿判别,在主题扩散演化滞后效应测度结果基础上进行滞后修正的研究前沿识别;最后,利用ARIMA模型和Word2Vec模型进行研究前沿主题趋势预测分析。[结果/结论]以美国纳米农业领域为例进行了实证研究。研究发现,基金和论文在外部数量和内部主题特征两个层面都显示出一定的滞后性。文章对纳米颗粒在农作物代谢过程中诱导应激机制、用于绿色可持续环境及农业应用的纳米气泡技术、农作物吸收不同剂量下纳米材料的反应与机制等7个研究前沿主题发展趋势进行了预测分析。[Purpose/significance]Revealing the dynamic evolution process of research frontier in different scientific and technical literature data such as fund projects and papers from a micro perspective helps to accurately grasp the activity mechanism of research frontier in the growth of scientific knowledge,and has certain practical guiding significance for research frontier,emerging trend identification and multi-source scientific and technical literature integration.[Method/process]Firstly,the research topics in fund projects and papers are identified based on LDA topic model,and then the topic related data is constructed by text similarity algorithm;identify the initial research frontier by integrating the emerging degree,attention index and strategic coordinate map,and identify the research frontier with lag correction based on the measurement results of lag effect of subject diffusion evolution;finally,ARIMA model and Word2Vec model are used to predict and analyze the trend of cutting-edge topics.[Result/conclusion]An empirical study is conducted using the field of nanoagriculture in the United States as an example.The results show that the funds and papers in the field of nanoagriculture in the United States show a certain lag in both external quantity and internal subject characteristics.Then,this paper predicted and analyzed the development trend of seven research fronts,including the stress mechanism induced by nanoparticles in the process of crop metabolism,the nano-bubble technology used for green sustainable environment and agricultural applications,the response and mechanism of nanomaterials absorbed by crops at different doses.

关 键 词：研究前沿 主题扩散演化 文本挖掘 趋势预测 可视化 

分 类 号：G353.1[文化科学—情报学]