国家生态文明试验区建设提高了碳生产率吗?——采用回归控制法的实证分析  

Has the Construction of National Ecological Civilization Pilot Zone Increased Carbon Productivity?:an Empirical Analysis Based on Regression Control Method

作　　者：胡剑波[1] 向港 HU Jian-bo;XIANG Gang(School of Economics,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550025,Guizhou,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学经济学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《西部论坛》2023年第2期43-59,共17页West Forum

基　　金：四川省社会科学重点研究基地“四川循环经济研究中心”重点项目(XHJJ-2202)。

摘　　要：设立国家生态文明试验区是加快推进生态文明建设的重要举措,2016年和2017年设立的首批国家生态文明试验区有福建省、江西省和贵州省。在“双碳”目标约束下,有效提高碳生产率成为国家生态文明试验区建设的重点任务之一。利用2004—2020年29个省份的面板数据,运用回归控制法分析福建、江西、贵州三省建设国家生态文明试验区对碳生产率的影响及其作用机制,结果表明:设立国家生态文明试验区后,三省碳生产率的增长快于其他26省份的均值,且福建省比浙江省、江西省比安徽省、贵州省比云南省有更快的碳生产率增长;设立国家生态文明试验区产生了明显的碳生产率提升效应(福建省、江西省、贵州省的年均政策效应分别为0.1378万元/吨、0.0654万元/吨、0.0403万元/吨),该结论在时间安慰剂、排除其他政策干扰和用信息准则选择最优子集等稳健性检验中依然成立;设立国家生态文明试验区产生了明显的能源消费结构改善效应、技术进步促进效应、劳动生产率提高效应。应持续推进国家生态文明试验区建设,有效促进绿色低碳发展。The establishment of national ecological civilization pilot zones is an important step for China to explore the path of low-carbon and green development in the new stage of development.This study examines the impact of the construction of these pilot zones on the carbon productivity of the provinces where they are located,analyzes underlying factors,and provides evidence and experience for green and low-carbon development and ecological civilization construction in other regions.However,there is currently limited research on the carbon productivity of national ecological civilization pilot zones,especially a lack of in-depth analysis of their influencing factors.Using panel data on carbon productivity and other variables from 29 provinces in China(excluding Tibet Autonomous Region,Hainan Province,Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan)from 2004 to 2020,this paper analyzes the trends in carbon productivity among different provinces and investigates whether the construction of national ecological civilization pilot zones has improved the carbon productivity of the pilot provinces.The paper also further analyzes its influencing factors through empirical tests using regression control methods.The results show that carbon productivity in various provinces and cities in China has been increasing in recent years,with the growth rates of Fujian,Jiangxi,and Guizhou provinces higher than the average of the other 26 provinces.The difference became even more pronounced after policy implementation,and the conclusion remained valid after a comparative analysis with similar control provinces.The establishment of national ecological civilization pilot zones has significantly improved the carbon productivity of the pilot provinces,and this conclusion still held after robustness tests using time-placebo checks,other policy interferences,and information criteria for selecting optimal subsets.Further analysis of its influencing factors revealed that the pilot provinces had improved carbon productivity by optimizing their energy structure,promot

关 键 词：国家生态文明试验区 回归控制法 碳生产率 能源结构 技术进步 劳动生产率 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] F127