湖北宜昌市2018-2021年松材线虫病疫情扩散时空演变分析  

Spatial-temporal evolution of pine wilt disease in Yichang city,Hubei province from 2018 to 2021

作　　者：赵金文 古剑 肖正利 向佐华 陈亮 ZHAO Jinwen;GU Jian;XIAO Zhengli;XIANG Zuohua;CHEN Liang(Yichang Forest Pest and Disease Control and Quarantine Station,Yichang 443001,China;Hubei Provincial Forestry Survey and Planning Institute,Wuhan 430079,China;Hubei Provincial Forestry Pest Control and Quarantine Station,Wuhan 430079,China)

机构地区：[1]宜昌市森林病虫防治检疫站,湖北宜昌443001 [2]湖北省林业调查规划院,湖北武汉430079 [3]湖北省林业有害生物防治检疫总站,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《中国森林病虫》2023年第3期36-43,共8页Forest Pest and Disease

基　　金：湖北省重大林业有害生物防治经费项目(2022−Z175070050002);宜昌市2022年科技创新资金“松材线虫病疫情监测与治理”(A22−1−057)。

摘　　要：松材线虫病疫情分布、危害及传播具有一定地理空间分布与时间演变规律,以湖北省宜昌市2018—2021年松材线虫病疫情危害松林位置空间信息为研究对象,运用空间数据统计分析与地图可视化、反距离权重法、时空模式挖掘、Slope趋势分析等分析疫情传播扩散时空演变,揭示其时空分异特征。结果表明:宜昌市属危害严重区域,2018年松材线虫病疫情出现危害高峰值,疫情由点状扩散到面状辐射蔓延,经政府主导防治后危害呈逐年递减趋势。危害高发区域随时间转移,2018年和2019年危害程度集聚性最高。反距离权重插值图显示疫情传播的最危险和严重性区域分布在夷陵区和当阳市。归一化植被指数(NDVI)具有明显的空间异质性,Slope线性回归预测松材线虫病疫情治理与扩散变化趋势呈现危害增加和危害减少两种类型。疫情时空热点呈分散型,空间演变体现治理成效特征,冷点趋势类别为连续冷点、持续冷点、分散冷点,分布区域长阳县、五峰县治理成效显著,危害较轻。辅助空间统计建模分析、测度时空演变差异性以及挖掘相关影响因子,为研究松材线虫病疫情传播扩散蔓延提供了借鉴,为探索综合防控提供辅助决策。The distribution,damage and transmission of pine wilt disease have characteristics of geographical spatial distribution and temporal evolution regularity.The spatial information of pine wilt disease in Yichang city,Hubei province from 2018 to 2021 was used as research object.The spatio-temporal evolution of epidemic transmission and diffusion was analysed by spatial data analysis and map visualization,inverse distance weight method,spatio-temporal pattern mining and slope trend analysis,in order to reveal spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics.The results showed that the epidemic of pine wilt disease in Yichang city in 2018 had a peak damage value and spread from point to surface radiation,which indicated that there was serious damage in Yichang.After government-led prevention and control,the damage showed a decreasing trend year by year.The areas with high incidence of the disease shifted with time,and the highest aggregation occurred in 2018 and 2019.Inverse distance weight interpolation map showed that the most dangerous and serious areas of epidemic transmission distributed in Yiling district and Dangyang county.The normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)showed obvious spatial heterogeneity.Slope linear regression showed increasing harm or decreasing harm in predicting the management and spread of pine wilt disease.Spatio-temporal hotspots of the epidemic were dispersed,and spatial evolution showed the characteristics of management effectiveness.The cold spot trend categories were continuous cold spot,sustained cold spot and scattered cold spot,and the distribution areas were Changyang county and Wufeng county,where the management effectiveness was significant and the disease was low.The auxiliary spatial modeling analysis,measurement of spatio-temporal variation differences and mining of related influencing factors provided references for study of the spread of pine wilt disease,and provided auxiliary decision-making for exploration of comprehensive prevention and control.

关 键 词：松材线虫病 疫情扩散 时空演变 宜昌市 

分 类 号：S763.16[农业科学—森林保护学]