风险决策权重的次确定性与超确定性——基于半参数法的实验验证  

Nuclear Pollution and Its Control in the Ural Region of the Soviet Union(1945-1960):Taking the Combine 817 as an Example

作　　者：刘国亮[1] 何娟[1] ZHANG Guang-xiang;SHI Cheng

机构地区：[1]吉林大学商学与管理学院,长春130012

出　　处：《吉林大学社会科学学报》2023年第3期130-143,238,共15页Jilin University Journal Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(2020YJA630083)。

摘　　要：原始前景理论遵循次确定性,即前景决策权重之和小于1,而作为该理论的推广发展,累积前景理论却没有坚持该性质。针对两版理论在决策权重确定性与次(超)确定性上的学术分歧,借助不预设具体决策权重函数形式的半参数法,对于不含零结果的两结果非混合前景,通过偏好选择实验进行了验证。结果表明,无论是在获得域还是在损失域,被试对于两端概率前景的选择行为符合超确定性,而对于中间概率前景的选择行为符合次确定性;并且相比于损失域,决策者在获得域上的选择行为所折射出的次确定性或超确定性均更强。研究结论能够为进一步发展和完善前景理论提供有益启示。In 1945,the Soviet government formulated and implemented a nuclear weapons development program to break the U.S.nuclear monopoly,and regarded the development of the atomic bomb as its highest political task.During the implementation of the nuclear program,the Soviet government,on the one hand,relied on the“national system”and administrative mobilization,and hurriedly started the program before all the technologies were mature,and although the atomic bomb was developed in a short period of time,the health of the personnel and environmental protection were neglected,resulting in irreversible social and environmental losses.The main cause of nuclear contamination in the nuclear program was the 817 Complex,the first plutonium-239 production plant in the Soviet Union,and the Kshtem nuclear accident caused by the explosion of the plant's waste storage tanks in 1957 was extremely serious.On the other hand,the Soviet government prevented further expansion of the contamination hazard and accumulated valuable experience for nuclear pollution control by establishing a radiation safety system,comprehensive management of the Jecha River,and comprehensive mobilization in response to the Kshtem nuclear accident.

关 键 词：前景理论 确定性 次确定性 超确定性 半参数法 实验研究 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]