基于DBN的机场飞行保障运行系统可靠性研究  

Research on reliability of airport flight support operation system based on DBN

作　　者：王永刚[1] 李赵钰 WANG Yong-gang;LI Zhao-yu(School of Safety Science and Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学安全科学与工程学院,天津300300

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2023年第4期998-1005,共8页Journal of Safety and Environment

摘　　要：为了防止机场运行环节失效导致航班不正常运行,提出了机场飞行保障运行系统可靠性的概念,并根据行业规章的要求,确定了机场飞行保障运行系统关键节点可靠性的参数及计算过程,给出了以顶层参数可靠性为目标的参数逻辑。分析得出了机场运行过程关键任务节点,建立了故障树,依据故障树逻辑门向动态贝叶斯网络(Dynamic Bayesian Networks, DBN)转化的映射规则,将故障树转化为DBN模型。以华北地机场的飞行保障运行系统进行应用实例分析,结果表明,停机坪地面服务保障阶段对机场飞行保障运行系统可靠性影响最大,其中加油作业中设备恢复环节、机务保障中航空器推出环节、行李货物装卸作业中装卸环节和设备靠机环节、上下旅客保障作业中设备靠机环节和上下客环节属于停机坪地面服务保障阶段的薄弱环节。该模型在用于国内机场飞行保障运行系统可靠性分析时,用后验概率可以识别出机场运行过程失效的原因,用敏感性分析可以识别出机场运行过程中关键薄弱环节。To prevent the failure of airport flight safety operation links from causing irregular flight operations, thereby leading to unsafe events, this paper proposes the concept of airport flight safety operation system reliability. According to the requirements of industry regulations, the parameters of reliability of key nodes of airport flight safety operation system, namely safety, quality and timeliness, as well as their calculation process are determined. Considering the maintainability after failure in the airport flight support process, the parameter logic aiming at the reliability of top-level parameters is given. In addition, through the analysis of the airport operation manual, the key task nodes of the airport operation process are obtained. Furthermore, the DBN model is transformed into the mapping rule according to the logic gate, to transform the fault tree of the airport flight support process into the DBN model of the airport flight operation support system. The application example analysis is conducted with the flight safety operation system of the airport in North China, and the flight operation safety data of the airport in the past five years are collected. It is found that the apron ground service safety phase has the greatest impact on the reliability of the airport flight safety operation system, among which refueling operation, equipment recovery, aircraft inspection, aircraft launch, baggage cargo handling operation, passenger operation, and equipment leaning operation belong to the apron ground service safety phase. As shown by the results, the model can be used in the domestic flight safety operation system, to identify the causes of airport operation process failure with posterior probability when used in the reliability analysis of domestic airport flight safety operation system. Meanwhile, the sensitivity analysis can identify the key weak links in the airport flight safety operation process, which is consistent with the actual situation. In this way, the model can effectively analyze the

关 键 词：安全工程 机场安全管理 系统可靠性 动态贝叶斯 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]