近60年来湖南省寒露风时空演变特征分析  

Spatial-temporal variations of autumn low temperature in Hunan Province in latest 60 years

作　　者：王德 金宇豪 张鑫臻 杨娟 吴金水 许航 肖阳 刘次桃 刘玲 郑铖 吴厚雄 段美娟[1] 施婉菊[1] WANG De;JIN Yuhao;ZHANG Xinzhen;YANG Juan;WU Jinshui;XU Hang;XIAO Yang;LIU Citao;LIU Ling;ZHENG Cheng;WU Houxiong;DUAN Meijuan;SHI Wanju(College of Agronomy,Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha 410128,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学农学院,长沙410128

出　　处：《东北农业大学学报》2023年第5期1-8,46,共9页Journal of Northeast Agricultural University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金联合基金重点支持项目(U21A20208);岳麓山种业创新项目(2021NK1012);湖南省科技创新计划项目(2021RC4066);湖南省2019年第七批创新型省份建设专项(2019RS1054)。

摘　　要：利用1961~2020年湖南省6个代表站点9月份逐日气象数据,采用距平分析、Manner-Kendall(MK)检验与Morlet小波分析法,研究湖南省气温与寒露风天气的时空变化特征。研究发现,对于时间序列,湖南省60年来9月份月平均气温、月平均最低气温与月最低气温升高幅度分别为0.134、0.206与0.326℃·10 a^(-1);寒露风在60年间强度呈高低交替循环趋势,强度演变主周期为13年,以1997年为界限,1997年后各周期内寒露风强度变化更剧烈;在经历最后一次突变后,寒露风强度自1987年开始呈下降趋势,但在1997~2020年仍发生多次重度寒露风。对于空间序列,6个地区月平均气温、月平均最低气温与月最低气温在60年间均呈上升趋势,寒露风强度呈下降趋势;寒露风发生频率从湘北-湘中-湘南地区呈降低趋势,同时6个地区寒露风不同强度发生频率与总日数均为轻度>重度>中度。60年来湖南省9月份存在气温升高、寒露风发生强度降低趋势,但并不能认为寒露风造成的危害正在降低。受极端气候事件频发影响,1997年后晚稻遭遇重度寒露风侵袭强度更大,对晚稻生产造成更严重威胁。研究可为湖南省晚稻防御寒露风及生产上防灾减灾提供依据。To understand the spatial and temporal variations characteristics of temperature and autumn low temperature in Hunan Province,the daily meteorological data in September of six representative weather stations in Hunan Province from 1961 to 2020 was used for anomaly analysis,Manner-Kendall(MK)method and Morlet wavelet analysis.The findings indicated that over the past 60 years,the monthly mean temperature,monthly mean minimum temperature,and monthly minimum temperature of September exhibited increases of 0.134,0.206,and 0.326℃·10 a^(-1),respectively,in their time series.The intensity of autumn low temperatures followed a 13-year cycle with alternating high and low intensities,and a significant shift in intensity was observed after 1997.Although a decline in the intensity of autumn low temperature was observed after 1987,several severe low-temperature events occurred between 1997 and 2020.Concerning the spatial analysis,the monthly mean temperature,monthly mean minimum temperature,and monthly minimum temperature exhibited an increasing trend across all regions over the past 60 years.However,the intensity of autumn low temperatures displayed a decreasing trend.Furthermore,the frequency of autumn low temperature decreased from north to south in Hunan Province,with the order of frequency and total duration of different intensity levels being mild>severe>moderate in each region.Consequently,although there has been a general increase in temperatures and a decrease in the intensity of autumn low temperatures in September over the past 60 years in Hunan Province,the damage caused by autumn low temperatures cannot be considered to be diminishing.Given the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events,late-season rice cultivation has been more adversely affected by severe autumn low temperatures since 1997,posing a greater threat to rice production during the late season.This research provides a foundation for developing strategies to mitigate the impact of autumn low temperatures on late-season rice production and facili

关 键 词：湖南省 气温 寒露风 时空变化特征 晚稻 

分 类 号：S166[农业科学—农业气象学]