基于WRF模式的渭河上游夏季降水及气温模拟  

Simulation of Summer Precipitation and Temperature in the Upper Reaches of the Weihe River Based on the WRF Model

作　　者：胡浩楠 刘引鸽 HU Haonan;LIU Yinge(School of History and Civilization,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi′an 710119,China;College of Geography and Environment,Baoji University of Arts and Sciences/Key Laboratory of Disaster Monitoring and Mechanism Simulation of Shaanxi Province,Baoji,Shaanxi 721013,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学历史文化学院,西安710119 [2]宝鸡文理学院地理与环境学院/陕西省灾害监测与机理模拟重点实验室,陕西宝鸡721013

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2023年第4期256-264,274,共10页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：陕西省重点研发计划项目(2022SF-364);国家自然科学基金(41771048)。

摘　　要：[目的]探索WRF模式不同方案在渭河上游的适用性,探讨其降水格局形成的物理机制,进而对该流域的水资源及环境管理预测提供依据。[方法]采用最新的WRF V4.1.2模式,选用Kain-Fritsch(K-F)和Grell-3两种积云对流参数化方案及其微物理过程,进行了不同分辨率的渭河流域上游夏季降水及温度试验模拟及评估。[结果]5 km分辨率下夏季6月、7月、8月两种方案模拟的气温略低于实际值,K-F方案和Grell-3方案误差分别为5.8%~10%及7%~12%。两种方案对降水模拟表现为偏高,降水随海拔高度和纬度变化不规律,误差分别为13%~39%和10%~25%。2 km分辨率下,K-F方案模拟的西南东南及西风气流较强,表现出垂直速度波动变化大,积云对流不稳定强烈,对流性降水偏多。Grell-3方案模拟的偏南暖湿气流较强,垂直速度较大,随高度增加较快,有利于大尺度强降水产生。5 km分辨率下夏季6月、7月、8月的气温及降水模拟对两种积云对流参数化方案具有较强的敏感性和适应性。K-F方案对气温模拟效果好于Grell-3方案,Grell-3方案对降水模拟效果优于K-F方案,尤其是强降水区域模拟效果更好。分辨率提高到2 km时两种方案更能细致地模拟出降水及气温的空间分布格局,高温及强降水区域更精细地展现出来。[结论]两种方案对水汽输送及垂直速度的模拟均很敏感,误差在可接受范围内。WRF模式中的K-F及Grell-3两种积云对流参数化方案适合于渭河上游的降水及气温模拟。[Objective]The aims of this study to explore the applicability of different schemes of the WRF model in the upper reaches of the Weihe River,discuss the physical mechanism of its precipitation pattern formation,and then provide a basis for the prediction of water resources and environmental management in the basin.[Methods]The latest WRF V4.1.2 model,Kain-Fritsch(K-F)and Grell-3 two cumulus convective parameterization schemes and microphysics schemes were used to conduct experiments with different resolutions on simulation and evaluation of the summer precipitation and temperature in the upper reaches of the Weihe River Basin.[Results]When the resolution is 5 km,the temperature simulated by the two schemes in June,July,and August in summer is slightly lower than the actual value,and the errors of the K-F scheme and the Grell-3 scheme are 5.8%~10%and 7%~12%,respectively.The simulation performance of the two schemes for precipitation is relatively high,and the precipitation varies irregularly with altitude and latitude,and the error tolerance rates are 13%~39%and 10%~25%.When the resolution is 2 km,the southwest,southeast and westerly winds simulated by the K-F scheme are strong,showing large fluctuations in vertical velocity,strong cumulus convective instability,and more convective precipitation.The southerly warm and humid airflow simulated by the Grell-3 scheme is stronger,the vertical velocity is larger,and it increases faster with height,which is conducive to the generation of large-scale heavy precipitation.The temperature and precipitation simulations in June,July,and August in summer at a resolution of 5 km have strong sensitivity and adaptability to the two cumulus convective parameterization schemes.The K-F scheme is better than the Grell-3 scheme in air temperature simulation,and the Grell-3 scheme is better in precipitation simulation than the K-F scheme,especially in heavy precipitation areas.When the resolution is increased to 2 km,the two schemes can simulate the spatial distribution pattern of preci

关 键 词：WRF模式 降水和气温 积云对流参数化 渭河上游 

分 类 号：P413[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]