中国实现碳中和路径下气溶胶减少造成的气候影响  被引量:3

Climate effects of future aerosol reductions for achieving carbon neutrality in China

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作  者:杨洋 曾靓莹 王海龙 王品雅 廖宏 Yang Yang;Liangying Zeng;Hailong Wang;Pinya Wang;Hong Liao(Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change,Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control,Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology,School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;College of Meteorology and Oceanography,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China;Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division,Pacific Northwest National Laboratory,Richland WA 99352,USA)

机构地区:[1]Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change,Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control,Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology,School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China [2]College of Meteorology and Oceanography,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China [3]Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division,Pacific Northwest National Laboratory,Richland WA 99352,USA

出  处:《Science Bulletin》2023年第9期902-905,M0004,共5页科学通报(英文版)

基  金:supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2019YFA0606800);Jiangsu Science Fund for Carbon Neutrality (BK20220031);Jiangsu Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars (BK20211541);support by the U.S.Department of Energy (DOE),Office of Science,Office of Biological and Environmental Research,as part of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program。

摘  要:中国提出2030年碳达峰与2060年碳中和目标.在达到碳中和的路径下,得益于清洁空气政策气溶胶排放都将显著降低,这可能会对未来气候产生重要影响.本文利用气候模型结合中国本地化的未来排放情景,发现在达到2060年碳中和的过程中气溶胶减少将在东亚造成0.63 Wm^(-2)的有效辐射强迫以及0.2K的地表增温.最大增温出现在中国东部,为0.5K.同时,华南地区降水将增加(>0.3 mm d^(-1)).尽管碳中和背景下温室气体的减少将有利于缓解气候变化,但是未来清洁空气行动致使气溶胶排放的减少将部分抵消二氧化碳减排带来的气候制冷效应.该研究进一步发现虽然黑碳气溶胶只占中国气溶胶的很少一部分,但降低黑碳排放可能同时有益于空气质量改善并缓解气候变化,达到减污降碳协同增效.To limit the global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels,beyond which the most dangerous impacts of climate change will occur,achieving carbon neutrality by the mid-21st century is essential[1].As the largest developing country and a significant contributor to carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emissions,China has announced its ambitious climate commitment to pass carbon peak before 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060[2].

关 键 词:碳中和 二氧化碳减排 未来气候 气溶胶 气候模型 温室气体 气候变化 协同增效 

分 类 号:P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X513[环境科学与工程—环境工程]

 

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