南大洋增暖及其气候影响  

Southern Ocean warmingand its climatic impacts

作　　者：蔡文炬 高立宝 罗义勇 李熙晨 郑小童 张学斌 程旭华 贾凡 Ariaan Purich Agus Santoso 杜岩 David MHolland 石佳睿 项宝强 谢尚平 Wenju Cai;Libao Gao;Yiyong Luo;Xichen Li;Xiaotong Zheng;Xuebin Zhang;Xuhua Cheng;Fan Jia;Ariaan Purich;Agus Santoso;Yan Du;David MHolland;Jia-Rui Shi;Baoqiang Xiang;Shang-Ping Xie(Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Laboratory for Ocean and Climate Dynamics,Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology,Qingdao 266237,China;Center for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research,Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation(CSIRO)Oceans and Atmosphere,Hobart 7004,Australia;First Institute of Oceanography and Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling,Ministry of Natural Resources,Qingdao 266061,China;Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling,Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology,Qingdao 266237,China;Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;College of Oceanography,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves,Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Qingdao 266071,China;Climate Change Research Centre,University of New South Wales,Sydney 2052,Australia;Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes,University of New South Wales,Sydney 2052,Australia;State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography,South China Sea Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou 510301,China;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory,Guangzhou 511458,China;Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences,New York University,New York NY 10012,USA;Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,Woods Hole MA 02543,USA;NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory,Princeton NJ 08540,USA;University Corporation for Atmospheric Research,Boulder CO 80307,USA;Scripps Institution of Oceanography,University of California San Diego,La Jolla CA 92093,USA)

机构地区：[1]Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China [2]Laboratory for Ocean and Climate Dynamics,Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology,Qingdao 266237,China [3]Center for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research,Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation(CSIRO)Oceans and Atmosphere,Hobart 7004,Australia [4]First Institute of Oceanography and Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling,Ministry of Natural Resources,Qingdao 266061,China [5]Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling,Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology,Qingdao 266237,China [6]Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China [7]College of Oceanography,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China [8]Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves,Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Qingdao 266071,China [9]Climate Change Research Centre,University of New South Wales,Sydney 2052,Australia [10]Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes,University of New South Wales,Sydney 2052,Australia [11]State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography,South China Sea Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou 510301,China [12]Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory,Guangzhou 511458,China [13]Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences,New York University,New York NY 10012,USA [14]Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,Woods Hole MA 02543,USA [15]NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory,Princeton NJ 08540,USA [16]University Corporation for Atmospheric Research,Boulder CO 80307,USA [17]Scripps Institution of Oceanography,University of California San Diego,La Jolla CA 92093,USA

出　　处：《Science Bulletin》2023年第9期946-960,M0004,共16页科学通报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFA0605700);supported by the Joint Research Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR)between the Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (QNLM)and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO);supported by the Australian Research Council Special Research Initiative for Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future (SR200100005);supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41876231);supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42230405 and 41976006);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41876008 and 41730534);supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41830538);the Program of Impact and Response of Antarctic Seas to Climate Change (IRASCC 01-01-01A);supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2020YFA0608801);the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of Chinese Academy of Sciences (2021205);supported by the National Science Foundation (AGS-1934392);supported by the National Science Foundation (OCE-2048336);the International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (183311KYSB20200015)。

摘　　要：过去几十年南大洋在南极平流层臭氧消耗和大气二氧化碳浓度增加的共同作用下大幅增暖,显著影响着南极冰架和冰盖的融化、海平面上升、南北半球的降水分配以及热带海洋和大气环流等,引发了深远的气候效应.全球变暖背景下南大洋西风表现为极向加强,同时进入南大洋的热辐射和淡水通量持续增加,由此上翻的海水可吸收更多的热量和碳,经由更强的平均流向北输送,更多地在45°S附近海域下沉并存储.当前对南大洋增暖背后诸多复杂的物理过程仍缺乏足够的理解,比如来自冰架、冰盖及海洋涡旋的作用、热带-极地相互作用、南大洋本身对全球变暖的响应等,尤其是有限的观测数据和较低分辨率的模式无法准确呈现快速变化的物理现象和机理.因此,南大洋的未来增暖存在很大的不确定性且可能长期持续,但近期的进展为深入认知南大洋增暖及其气候影响奠定了坚实的基础.The Southern Ocean has warmed substantially,and up to early 21st century,Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion and increasing atmospheric CO2 have conspired to intensify Southern Ocean warming.Despite a projected ozone recovery,fluxes to the Southern Ocean of radiative heat and freshwater from enhanced precipitation and melting sea ice,ice shelves,and ice sheets are expected to increase,as is a Southern Ocean westerly poleward intensification.The warming has far-reaching climatic implications for melt of Antarctic ice shelf and ice sheet,sea level rise,and remote circulations such as the intertropical convergence zone and tropical ocean-atmosphere circulations,which affect extreme weathers,agricul-ture,and ecosystems.The surface warm and freshwater anomalies are advected northward by the mean circulation and deposited into the ocean interior with a zonal-mean maximum at45°S.The increased momentum and buoyancy fluxes enhance the Southern Ocean circulation and water mass transforma-tion,further increasing the heat uptake.Complex processes that operate but poorly understood include interactive ice shelves and ice sheets,oceanic eddies,tropical-polar interactions,and impact of the Southern Ocean response on the climate change forcing itself;in particular,limited observations and low resolution of climate models hinder rapid progress.Thus,projection of Southern Ocean warming will likely remain uncertain,but recent community effort has laid a solid foundation for substantial progress.

关 键 词：平流层臭氧 南大洋 物理现象 物理过程 全球变暖 热带海洋 南北半球 低分辨率 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P732