台湾地区“南向政策”效果评估  

The Effect Evaluation of"Go South Policy"in Taiwan

作　　者：李鸣玖 LI Ming-jiu(Institute of Economics,Jinan University,510000,Guangzhou,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院,广东广州510000

出　　处：《特区经济》2023年第4期114-118,共5页Special Zone Economy

摘　　要：本文基于1990—2019年台湾地区进出口贸易与对外直接投资数据,运用双重差分法对台湾地区两次“南向政策”的实施进行实证研究。结果表明:李登辉当局提出的“南向政策”与蔡英文当局提出的“新南向政策”对台湾地区的进出口及对外直接投资的比例分布没有影响。南向经济为台湾地区提供了中国内地之外新的经济发展思路,但对促进其经济势力扩张并无帮助。台湾地区当局应加强与中国内地的经济文化交流,推动两岸经贸关系和谐发展。Based on the database of Taiwan's export,import and foreign direct investment,the research used"difference and differences"econometrics method to make empirical research for Taiwan's"Go South Policy"which happened in two different periods.The results shown that the"Southern Policy"of Lee Teng-hui government and the"New Southbound Policy"of Tsai Ing-wen government are useless for the percentage of distribution of Taiwan's export,import and foreign direct investment.Though the economics of southern provides some new economic development ideas for Taiwan,the"Go South Policy"can't promote the expansion of Taiwan's economic power.China's Taiwan authorities should judge the hour and size up the situation and enhance the economic and culture exchanges which can promote the harmonious development of cross-strait economic and trade relations.

关 键 词：南向政策 双重差分法 事件研究法 台湾地区贸易 

分 类 号：F740.43[经济管理—国际贸易]