苏丹社会泛政治化中的军队因素  

Military Factors in Pan-Politicalization of Sudan

作　　者：王猛[1] Wang Meng

机构地区：[1]西北大学中东研究所

出　　处：《现代国际关系》2023年第4期24-41,150,共19页

基　　金：国家社科基金后期资助项目“中国中东外交的发展与演进研究”(20FSSB017)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：苏丹是高度政治化的不发达国家,军事部门是最强势和高效的国家机构,军队的割裂式发展和政治参与增加了政治发展和秩序建设的复杂性。2023年4月苏丹两支武装力量之间爆发的武装冲突就是其复杂性的最新事例。鉴于文官政府与军政府交替执政的历史惯性和现实国情,以及军政府执政与泛政治化社会的双向互动,苏丹将会经历一段时间的监护型或看守型军政府统治。由此,苏丹政治过渡的前景当是重建相对有效的军政府秩序,尚难确定的是这种军政府秩序的具体形式、内涵及其所需的时间和代价,而下一位军事强人总统的阶层和部族属性大概率决定着军政府秩序重建的时间和代价。Sudan is a pan-politicized and underdeveloped country,in which the military is the most powerful and efficient national institution.The disjointed development of the Sudanese military and its political participation have intensified the complexity and variety of political development and order reconstruction.Given the historical and realistic situation of alternating governance between civilian and military governments,given the two-way interaction between military rule and the pan-politicized society,the foreseeable prospect for Sudan's political transition in the post-Bashir era is to rebuild a relatively effective military government order.What is uncertain is the type of military government order to be established and the time and cost required.The class and tribal attributes of the next military president will most likely determine the time and cost of rebuilding the military government order.

关 键 词：苏丹 泛政治化 军人干政 还政于民 

分 类 号：D741.2[政治法律—政治学] E412[政治法律—中外政治制度]