基于动态重力信息的地震前兆与强震短临预报  

Earthquake Precursors and Short-impending Prediction of Strong Earthquakes Based on Dynamic Gravity Information

作　　者：张茂省 刘华强[3] 梁国冰[4] 冯立 董英 贾俊[2] 贾科[3] 孙萍萍 ZHANG Maosheng;LIU Huaqiang;LIANG Guobing;FENG Li;DONG Ying;JIA Jun;JIA Ke;SUN Pingping(School of Human Settlements and Civil Engineering,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 712000,Shaanxi,China;Key Laboratory for Geo-hazard in Loesses Area,Ministry of Natural Resources/Xi’an Center of China Geological Survey,Xi’an 710119,Shaanxi,China;School of Astronautics,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi’an 710072,Shaanxi,China;College of Geological Engineering and Geomatics,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710054,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学人居环境与建筑工程学院,陕西西安712000 [2]自然资源部黄土地质灾害重点实验室/中国地质调查局西安地质调查中心,陕西西安710119 [3]西北工业大学航天学院,陕西西安710072 [4]长安大学地质工程与测绘学院,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《西北地质》2023年第3期1-18,共18页Northwestern Geology

基　　金：国家重点研发项目(2018YFC1504700),国家自然科学基金重点项目(41641011、41530640)联合资助。

摘　　要：地震预报是当今世界尚未破解的重大科技难题,短临地震预报是地震预报的难点,有效的前兆信息则是短临预报的关键。笔者围绕短临地震预报难题,研制了高精度动态固体潮汐重力仪和大气潮汐重力仪,成功捕获到2010~2023年间的玉树7.1级地震、土耳其7.8级地震等震前几十个小时的动态重力场变化信息。这些信息再现了强震孕育-发生的过程,初步揭示短临阶段“基本稳定→闭锁蓄能→震前平静→能量释放”的强震物理机制,可作为短临地震预报的前兆信息。为实现对短临地震“时−空−强”的准确预报,提出通过动态重力场变化组网观测和分布式前兆信息数据库建设,进一步揭示不同类型地震的动态重力信号响应规律,建立强震发生概率、时间、震中位置及震级预报模型的可行性路径,渴望破解强震短临预报的世界难题。How to accurately predict earthquake is a global scientific problem that needs to be solved at present,especially for short-impending earthquake prediction,which has been the hot topic of long-term attention in the earthquake field,and obtaining effective precursor information is the key to forecast this type of earthquake.Currently,it is difficult to predict short-impending earthquake because of the following reasons:firstly,there is lack of universal precursor information which can reflect the occurrence process of strong earthquake;second,the scientific community’s understanding of the earthquake initiation mechanism is not comprehensive enough;finally,the earthquake prediction theory and its technical methods have not reached the level of application.In this context,we found that the dynamics of gravitational field at ultra-low frequencies may be highly correlated with the occurrence of short-impending earthquake.Therefore,a high-precision dynamic solid tidal gravimeter and an atmospheric tidal gravimeter were developed to capture gravity anomaly,which can detect the gravitational field changes of 1~10μGal at ultra-low frequencies(1~30 mHz).According to the monitoring,the dynamic gravity field changes of dozens of strong earthquakes from 2010 to 2023 were successfully captured,such as the Yushu earthquake in China(7.1-magnitude),the Turkey earthquake(7.8-magnitude),and Indonesia earthquake(7.4-magnitude),etc.These data have the potential to be used as the precursor information of short-impending earthquake prediction as they can reflect the whole process of earthquake from preparation to occurrence.Furthermore,the physical mechanism of"basic stability→occluded energy storage→pre-shock calm→energy release"for strong earthquake in short-impending stage was further verified.In addition,a plausible approach is proposed to achieve the time-space-intensity prediction for the short-impending earthquake,that means a prediction model of probability,time,location,and magnitude of strong earthquake is construct

关 键 词：短临地震预报 地震前兆 地震发生机制 动态重力异常 

分 类 号：P65[天文地球—地质学]