知识产权自愿性信息披露、分析师预测分歧度与股价崩盘风险  

The Correlation of Voluntary Disclosure of Intellectual Property Rights and Analyst Forecast Dispersion with Stock Price Collapse Risk

作　　者：鲍新中[1] 李佳航 陈柏彤 BAO Xinzhong;LI Jiahang;CHEN Baitong(College of Management,Beijing Union University,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]北京联合大学管理学院,北京100101

出　　处：《北京联合大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2023年第3期62-79,共18页Journal of Beijing Union University(Humanities and Social Sciences)

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金重大项目“北京市高精尖产业知识产权证券化模式与机制研究”(项目编号:20ZDA03)。

摘　　要：近年来,知识产权自愿性信息披露颇受重视。而知识产权自愿性信息披露对股票市场影响的研究对于企业明确知识产权自愿性信息披露的重要性、维持股票市场的稳定健康发展具有重要意义。本文基于大数据文本挖掘思想测度上市公司的知识产权自愿性文本信息披露水平,并基于此实证检验知识产权自愿性信息披露对股票市场股价崩盘风险的影响。研究发现:知识产权自愿性信息披露能够显著降低上市公司的股价崩盘风险,而这种关系在非国有企业和制造业企业中更为显著。分析师预测分歧度在知识产权自愿性信息披露与股价崩盘风险之间发挥显著的中介作用。进一步研究发现,知识产权优势信息和风险信息的披露对于股价崩盘风险的降低具有显著作用,而知识产权内容信息披露对股价崩盘风险的降低作用并不显著,再次对知识产权优势信息和风险信息的机制检验发现,分析师预测分歧度依旧发挥显著的中介作用。Voluntary disclosure of intellectual property(IP)has received increasing attention in recent years.Research on the impact of voluntary IP disclosure on the stock market is of great significance for enterprises to understand the importance of voluntary IP disclosure and maintain the stable and healthy development of the stock market.This study employs big data text mining to measure the level of voluntary text information disclosure of IP of listed companies and empirically tests the impact of voluntary IP disclosure on stock price collapse risk.The research shows that voluntary disclosure of IP can significantly reduce the stock price collapse risk of listed companies,and this relationship is more pronounced in non-state-owned and manufacturing enterprises.Analyst forecast dispersion plays a significant intermediary role between voluntary IP disclosure and stock price collapse risk.Furthermore,the research finds that the disclosure of IP advantage information and risk information has a significant effect on the reduction of stock price collapse risk,while the disclosure of IP content information has no significant effect on the reduction of stock price collapse risk.The mechanism test of IP advantage information and risk information reveals that analyst forecast dispersion still plays a significant intermediary role.

关 键 词：知识产权 自愿性信息披露 分析师预测分歧度 股价崩盘风险 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学]