2002—2022年宁波市恶性肿瘤死亡趋势分析  

Trends in mortality of malignant tumors in Ningbo City from 2002 to 2022

作　　者：王永[1] 应焱燕[1] 陈洁平[1] 崔军[1] 包凯芳 李思萱[1] 朱银潮[1] 王思嘉 徐典 冯宏伟 WANG Yong;YING Yanyan;CHEN Jieping;CUI Jun;BAO Kaifang;LI Sixuan;ZHU Yinchao;WANG Sijia;XU Dian;FENG Hongwei(Department of Non-communicable Diseases Control and Prevention,Ningbo Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Ningbo,Zhejiang 315010,China)

机构地区：[1]宁波市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病防制所,浙江宁波315010

出　　处：《预防医学》2023年第6期496-500,505,共6页CHINA PREVENTIVE MEDICINE JOURNAL

基　　金：宁波市医学重点学科(2022-B18);宁波市公益类科技计划项目(2021S164)。

摘　　要：目的了解2002—2022年浙江省宁波市恶性肿瘤死亡趋势,为完善宁波市恶性肿瘤防制策略提供依据。方法通过宁波市死因监测系统收集2002—2022年宁波市恶性肿瘤死亡资料,分析宁波市恶性肿瘤粗死亡率、年龄别死亡率,采用2010年中国第六次人口普查人口构成计算中国人口标化率(中标率),采用Segi’s 1960年世界标准人口构成计算世界人口标化率(世标率);采用年度变化百分比(APC)、平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)分析宁波市恶性肿瘤死亡率变化趋势。结果2002—2022年宁波市恶性肿瘤粗死亡率为186.43/10万~221.24/10万,呈上升趋势(AAPC=0.76%),中标率(AAPC=-2.64%)和世标率(AAPC=-2.74%)均呈下降趋势(均P<0.05);其中世标率呈现3个变化阶段,2011—2018年APC值为-3.53%,高于2002—2011年的-2.10%和2018—2022年的-2.00%(均P<0.05)。恶性肿瘤死亡率年均下降比例男性(中标率AAPC=-2.68%,世标率AAPC=-2.75%)高于女性(中标率AAPC=-2.45%,世标率AAPC=-2.57%),城市(中标率AAPC=-2.85%,世标率AAPC=-2.92%)高于农村(中标率AAPC=-2.45%,世标率AAPC=-2.57%)(均P<0.05)。宁波市恶性肿瘤死亡率随年龄增加呈上升趋势,在≥85岁组达到最高,为1447.13/10万。宁波市恶性肿瘤死亡占所有死因的31.86%,前五位死因依次为肺癌、肝癌、胃癌、结直肠癌和食管癌;胰腺癌(AAPC=3.92%)、前列腺癌(AAPC=4.71%)和宫颈癌(AAPC=1.60%)世标率呈上升趋势(均P<0.05)。结论2002—2022年宁波市恶性肿瘤粗死亡率呈上升趋势,标化死亡率呈下降趋势。男性和农村居民是重点防控人群,肺癌、肝癌、胃癌、结直肠癌和食管癌是重点防控类型。Objective To investigate the trends in mortality of malignant tumors in Ningbo City,Zhejiang Province from 2002 to 2022,so as to provide the evidence for formulating malignant tumor control strategies in Ningbo City.Methods The data regarding the mortality of malignant tumors in Ningbo City from 2002 to 2022 were collected through the Ningbo Municipal Death Cause Monitoring System,and the crude mortality and age-specific mortality of malignant tumors were calculated in Ningbo City.The mortality of malignant tumors was standardized by the population of the sixth National Population Census in China in 2010(Chinese-standardized mortality)and the world standard population in 1960(world-standardized mortality).The trends in mortality of malignant tumors were evaluated with annual percent change(APC)and average annual percent change(AAPC).Results The crude mortality of malignant tumors was 186.43/105 to 221.24/105 in Ningbo City from 2002 to 2022,which showed a tendency towards a rise(AAPC=0.76%),and both the Chinese-(AAPC=-2.64%)and world-standardized mortality(AAPC=-2.74%)appeared a tendency towards a decline(all P<0.05).The world-standardized mortality of malignant tumors presented three changes in Ningbo City from 2002 to 2022,with a more remarkable decline from 2011 to 2018(APC=-3.53%)than from 2002 to 2011(APC=-2.10%)and from 2018 to 2022(APC=-2.00%)(all P<0.05).The annual decline in mortality of malignant tumors was higher in men(Chinese-standardized mortality:AAPC=-2.68%;world-standardized mortality:AAPC=-2.75%)than in women(Chinese-standardized mortality:AAPC=-2.45%;world-standardized mortality:AAPC=-2.57%),and higher in urban areas(Chinese-standardized mortality:AAPC=-2.85%;world-standardized mortality:AAPC=-2.92%)than in rural areas(Chinese-standardized mortality:AAPC=-2.45%;world-standardized mortality:AAPC=-2.57%)(all P<0.05).The mortality of malignant tumors appeared a tendency towards a rise with age in Ningbo City,with the highest mortality in residents at ages of 85 years and older(1447.13/105).Death f

关 键 词：恶性肿瘤 死亡率 宁波市 

分 类 号：R246.5[医药卫生—针灸推拿学]