基于灾害演化动力学模型的城市韧性增强机制研究  

Study on urban resilience enhancement mechanism based on disaster evolution dynamics model

作　　者：陈文强[1] 王迪 CHEN Wenqiang;WANG Di(School of Management,Tianjin University of Technology,Tianjin 300384,China)

机构地区：[1]天津理工大学管理学院,天津300384

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2023年第5期14-20,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：天津市艺术科学规划项目(D22004)。

摘　　要：为探究城市系统抗灾防灾能力提升的机制,运用灾害演化动力学模型度量城市韧性中的吸收能力、恢复能力和适应能力,从灾害演化与城市系统和子系统互动联系的视角,分析城市韧性增强机制,并提出不同自然灾害类型的城市韧性增强策略,建立城市韧性增强路径。研究结果表明:提高城市恢复能力会增强城市吸收和适应能力,随着恢复能力增加,对吸收、适应能力的增强效应越强;关注城市系统循环链中的入度较大节点,能更有效提升城市韧性。研究结果可为政府部门抵御灾害提供新的思路,并为政府部门制定针对性的灾害防护措施及修复策略提供依据。In order to explore the mechanism for the improvement of disaster resistance and disaster prevention ability of urban system,the disaster evolution dynamics model was used to measure the absorptive capacity,recovery capacity and adaptive capacity of urban resilience.From the perspective of the interaction between disaster evolution and urban system and subsystems,the urban resilience enhancement mechanism was analyzed,and the urban resilience enhancement strategies of different disaster types were proposed to establish the urban resilience enhancement path.The results showed that improving the urban recovery capacity will enhance the urban absorptive and adaptive capacity,and with the increase of recovery capacity,the enhancement effect to the absorptive and adaptive capacity is stronger.Focusing on the nodes with large incoming degree in the urban system cycle chain can improve the urban resilience more effectively.The results can provide new idea for government departments to resist disasters,and is conducive to provide basis for government departments to formulate the targeted disaster protection measures and repair strategies.

关 键 词：灾害演化 韧性增强机制 适应能力 吸收能力 恢复能力 

分 类 号：X915.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学] X913.4