重大自然灾害下多灾害点应急物资智能调度优化  

Intelligent dispatching optimization of emergency supplies to multidisaster areas in major natural disasters

作　　者：张琳[1] 王金玉 王鑫 王伟 曲立[1] ZHANG Lin;WANG Jinyu;WANG Xin;WANG Wei;QU Li(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Information Science and Technology University,Beijing 100192,China;Fire Fighting Theory Laboratory,Shanghai Fire Science and Technology Research Institute of Ministry of Emergency Management,Shanghai 200032,China)

机构地区：[1]北京信息科技大学经济管理学院,北京100192 [2]应急管理部上海消防研究所灭火理论研究室,上海200032

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第5期765-774,共10页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71804083);北京信息科技大学校科研基金项目(2021XJJ42);上海市软科学重点项目(21692104800);上海市青年科技启明星计划项目(20QB1401000)。

摘　　要：重大自然灾害频发对国家安定和人民生命安全带来威胁的同时也会造成严重的经济损失。如何在灾后将受灾点所需应急物资快速、精准运送到位受到了广泛关注。该文针对重大自然灾害事件救援特点,考虑在不确定性条件下,兼顾应急调度成本最低和调度时间最短两目标,构建面向多灾害点的应急物资智能调度模型。研究选取2021年中国河南特大暴雨灾害为典型案例,基于三角模糊数方法对不确定变量进行表示,从而将所构建的模型转变为确定性多目标应急物资智能调度模型,同时引入二维Euclid距离赋权进行模拟运算,对模型求解。进一步,利用LINGO软件计算得到各出救点至各受灾点分阶段应急物资调度方案。研究结果表明,利用该模型得到的模拟结果与现实要求接近,能够满足重大自然灾害下多灾害点应急物资调度需求,可为决策者制定有效救灾策略提供参考。The frequent occurrence of major natural disasters not only endangers national stability and people's safety but also causes serious economic losses.Since most sudden natural disasters are unpredictable,how to transport emergency supplies to disaster-affected areas quickly and accurately has attracted wide attention.Unlike existing research,this study begins with the rescue characteristics of major natural disasters.In this study,an intelligent dispatching model of emergency supplies for multidisaster areas is constructed considering.Considering that the emergency materials of each rescue area to meet the needs of each disaster area,this study constructs an uncertain multiobjective intelligent dispatching model of emergency supplies in fully.Due to the uncertainty and fuzziness of information in emergency situations,using triangular fuzzy number method can help decision-makers to make effective decisions.Therefore,triangular fuzzy number method is used to express the uncertainty of emergency supplies demand and transportation time in different disaster areas.The rainstorm disaster in Henan Province,China,in 2021 is taken as a typical case in this study.The objective and actual data of emergency supplies dispatched in this disaster are obtained from the official websites of Zhengzhou Temporary Disaster Relief Reserve,Red Cross Society of China Henan Branch,and Henan Charity Network.This study sets emergency supplies as variable x(Ze)_(ij),unit cost as variable c_(ij),transportation time as a variable t_(ij).According to the triangular fuzzy number of emergency supplies demand and transportation time which set in this study,the uncertain variables are represented by the triangular fuzzy number method.Thus,the model is transformed into a deterministic multiobjective intelligent dispatching model.Two-dimensional Euclidean distance weighting is used to simulate the calculation and solve the model.Then,the linear interactive and general optimizer(LINGO)software is used to calculate the emergency supplies dispatching st

关 键 词：重大自然灾害 应急物资 智能调度 多灾害点 决策优化 

分 类 号：F253.4[经济管理—国民经济]