基于Meta分析的1985—2018年中国森林虫害的时空特征及其影响因素  

Spatio-temporal variability of forest pest disasters in China from 1985 to 2018 by Meta-analysis and influencing factors

作　　者：张学珍[1,2] 贺清雯 黄季夏 ZHANG Xuezhen;HE Qingwen;HUANG Jixia(Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Precision Forestry Key Laboratory of Beijing,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]北京林业大学精准林业北京市重点实验室,北京100083

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2023年第5期960-970,共11页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFA0606600)。

摘　　要：森林虫害是中国森林生态系统面临的严重威胁。论文以“基础资料完全来源于地面调查”为标准,遴选了316篇森林虫害主题的研究论文,从中提取森林虫害的时间、地点、面积等信息,采用Meta分析方法,分析了中国森林虫害的时空特征。论文共计提取了可分辨至县域单元的森林虫害962次,时间跨度1985—2018年,涉及299个县(市、区)。研究发现:①1985—2018年期间共计发生242县次重度森林虫害,年均7.1县次,1985—2005年重度森林虫害县次数以0.4县次/年的速率增加,而2005—2018年转为减少趋势,速率为-0.6县次/年;②从空间差异看,东南部的武夷山区和西北部的祁连山中东段各县的中轻度虫害频次较高,而重度虫害县次数自东南沿海向西北内陆逐渐减少,武夷山为全国森林虫害的典型区;③气象因素是影响森林虫害的首要因素,北方半干旱区南半部和暖温带半湿润区森林虫害县次数年际波动与前冬季温度显著负相关,而南方北亚热带和中亚热带地区则与春季温度显著负相关。研究揭示了中国森林虫害的地理差异,为更好地研究森林虫害的成因及其气候环境效应提供基础。Pest disasters are serious threats faced by the forest ecosystem of China.This study selected 316 research papers on forest pest disasters with the selection criteria that primary data of the research were completely obtained from ground survey.We compiled the time of occurrence,location,affected area,and intensity of each forest pest disaster(FPD)event.Then,using Meta-analysis on these records,we depicted the spatial and temporal variability of forest pest disasters in China.A total of 962 FPD records were compiled.These records involved 299 counties in China and covered a temporal range from 1985 to 2018.The results showed that there were 242 county-times of serious FPD events during 1985-2018 with an annual mean of 7.1 county-times.From 1985 to 2005,the annual county-time number of serious FPD events increased at 0.4 county-times per year,but the upward trend was replaced by a decline of-0.6 county-times per year from 2005 to 2018.Spatially,there were more FPD events in the Wuyi Mountains in southeast China and the Qilian Mountains in northwest China compared to other regions.The frequency of serious FPD events exhibited a declining trend from the southeastern coast of China to the northwestern inland region.The Wuyi Mountains area was the most serious FPD region of China.Meteorology factors were considered the primary factor that influenced the FPD.The interannual fluctuation of FPD frequency was negatively correlated with winter temperature of the previous year in the southern part of the semi-arid area and the warm temperate semi-humid area;while it is negatively correlated with spring temperature in the north sub-tropic area and the central sub-tropic area in the south.

关 键 词：森林虫害 时空特征 META分析 中国 

分 类 号：S763[农业科学—森林保护学]