清代自然灾害所致极端人口死亡事件的识别及特征  

Identification and characteristics of extreme events with mass deaths caused by natural disasters in the Qing Dynasty

作　　者：陈思宇 方修琦 叶瑜 赵琬一 CHEN Siyu;FANG Xiuqi;YE Yu;ZHAO Wanyi(Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875

出　　处：《地理学报》2023年第5期1074-1087,共14页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(20XNL011);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA19040101)。

摘　　要：大规模的人口死亡受到自然系统和社会经济系统的共同影响,是自然灾害对人口系统造成的主要威胁之一。基于从“清代自然灾害信息集成数据库”中提取的人口死亡记录,识别并分析了清代发生的极端人口死亡事件特征,重建了清代极端人口死亡强度、年次及省次的10 a序列,并分析其空间分布和发生原因。结论表明:①清代共有91年发生过极端人口死亡事件,平均约每3 a发生一次。极端人口死亡事件发生的频率和强度存在一定的阶段性变化,1644年—18世纪20年代为与清代总体平均值接近的阶段,18世纪30年代—19世纪初是清代极端人口死亡事件发生频率和强度均最低的时期,19世纪10年代—1911年为事件发生的稳定高值期。②清代共有18个省级政区发生过极端人口死亡事件,1644年—18世纪20年代极端事件分布较广但主要为较低强度的事件,18世纪30年代—19世纪初极端事件的分布范围最小,19世纪10年代—1911年事件分布广、强度高,致死因子出现明显的南涝北旱分异。③疫病、饥荒和洪涝在各阶段均是造成极端人口死亡事件的主要因子,干旱、雨水和风暴潮则是主要的间接致死因子。Mass mortality is one of the major threats posed by natural disasters to the population system,which consists of interactions between natural and socio-economic systems.Based on records of deaths extracted from the Integrated Natural Disaster Information System of the Qing Dynasty,events with mass deaths caused by natural disasters are identified,and the decadal deaths index series from 1644 to 1911 is reconstructed.The spatio-temporal characteristics and causes of these extreme events with mass deaths are also analyzed.The main results show the following.First,from 1644 to 1911,historical China suffered a high frequency of extreme events with mass deaths that occurred in 91 years,with events occurring once every three years on average.Second,the deaths index series varies significantly in three phases:PhaseⅠis from 1644 to the 1720s with a frequency and intensity close to the average over the entire Qing Dynasty;PhaseⅡis from the 1730s to the 1800s with a low frequency of events occurring in two years and in two provinces per decade;and PhaseⅢis from the 1810s to 1911 with a high frequency of events occurring in five years and in five provinces per decade.The maximum frequency and intensity appeared in the 1870s,whereas no extreme events with mass deaths occurred in the 1750s.Third,a total of 18 provinces experienced extreme events,and the spatial distribution of extreme events during the three phases differs.During PhaseⅠ,extreme events were widely distributed but of relatively low intensity;such events occurred in fewer provinces during PhaseⅡ.During PhaseⅢ,extreme events occurred in 18 provinces with high intensity and their spatial distribution showed a significant pattern of floods in southern China and droughts in northern China.Finally,epidemics,famine,and flood were the main contributors to extreme events with mass deaths throughout the entire Qing Dynasty,with drought,heavy rain,and storm surges being the main indirect factors.

关 键 词：清代 历史灾害 人口死亡 时空特征 

分 类 号：K249[历史地理—历史学] X43[历史地理—中国史]