A review of recent advances(2018–2021)on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives,part 1:Dynamical model guidance  

作　　者：Zhan Zhang Weiguo Wang James D.Doyle Jonathan Moskaitis William A.Komaromi Julian Heming Linus Magnusson John P.Cangialosi Levi Cowan Michael Brennan Suhong Ma Ananda Kumar Das Hosomi Takuya Peter Clegg Thomas Birchard John A.Knaff John Kaplan Mrutyunjay Mohapatra Monica Sharma Ikegami Masaaki Liguang Wu Eric Blake 

机构地区：[1]NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center,USA [2]SAIC@NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center,USA [3]Naval Research Laboratory,USA [4]Met Office,UK [5]ECMWF,Reading,UK [6]NOAA/NWS/NCEP National Hurricane Center,USA [7]Joint Typhoon Warning Center,USA [8]China Meteorological Administration,China [9]Indian Meteorological Department,India [10]Japan Meteorological Agency,Japan [11]Bureau of Meteorology,Australia [12]Central Pacific Hurricane Center,USA [13]NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research,USA [14]NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division,USA [15]Fudan University,Shanghai,China [16]IMSG@NOAA/NWS/OSTI,USA

出　　处：《Tropical Cyclone Research and Review》2023年第1期30-49,共20页热带气旋研究与评论（英文版）

摘　　要：This review summarizes the rapporteur report on tropical cyclone(TC)intensity change from the operational perspective,as presented to the 10th International Workshop on TCs(IWTC-10)held in Bali,Indonesia,from Dec.5–9,2022.The accuracy of TC intensity forecasts issued by operational forecast centers depends on three aspects:real-time observations,TC dynamical model forecast guidance,and techniques and methods used by forecasters.The rapporteur report covers the progress made over the past four years(2018–2021)in all three aspects.This review focuses on the progress of dynamical model forecast guidance.The companion paper(Part II)summarizes the advance from operational centers.The dynamical model forecast guidance continues to be the main factor leading to the improvement of operational TC intensity forecasts.Here,we describe recent advances and developments of major operational regional dynamical TC models and their intensity forecast performance,including HWRF,HMON,COAMPS-TC,Met Office Regional Model,CMA-TYM,and newly developed HAFS.The performance of global dynamical models,including NOAA's GFS,Met Office Global Model(MOGM),JMA's GSM,and IFS(ECMWF),has also been improved in recent years due to their increased horizontal and vertical resolution as well as improved data assimilation systems.Recent challenging cases of rapid intensification are presented and discussed.

关 键 词：Dynamical models Intensity forecast Operational forecasts Tropical cyclone 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]