A review of recent advances(2018–2021)on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives,part 2:Forecasts by operational centers  

作　　者：Weiguo Wang Zhan Zhang John P.Cangialosi Michael Brennan Levi Cowan Peter Clegg Hosomi Takuya Ikegami Masaaki Ananda Kumar Das Mrutyunjay Mohapatra Monica Sharma John A.Knaff John Kaplan Thomas Birchard James D.Doyle Julian Heming Jonathan Moskaitis Suhong Ma Charles Sampson Liguang Wu Eric Blake 

机构地区：[1]NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center,USA [2]NOAA/NWS/NCEP National Hurricane Center,USA [3]Joint Typhoon Warning Center,USA [4]Bureau of Meteorology,Australia [5]Japan Meteorological Agency,Japan [6]Indian Meteorological Department,India [7]NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research,USA [8]NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division,USA [9]Central Pacific Hurricane Center,USA [10]Naval Research Laboratory,USA [11]Met Office,UK [12]China Meteorological Administration,China [13]Fudan University,Shanghai,China [14]IMSG@NOAA/NWS/OSTI,USA

出　　处：《Tropical Cyclone Research and Review》2023年第1期50-63,共14页热带气旋研究与评论（英文版）

摘　　要：This paper summarizes the progress and activities of tropical cyclone(TC)operational forecast centers during the last four years(2018–2021).It is part II of the review on TC intensity change from the operational perspective in the rapporteur report presented to the 10th International Workshop on TCs(IWTC)held in Bali,Indonesia,from Dec.5–9,2022.Part I of the review has focused on the progress of dynamical model forecast guidance.This part discusses the performance of TC intensity and rapid intensification forecasts from several operational centers.It is shown that the TC intensity forecast errors have continued to decrease since the 9th IWTC held in 2018.In particular,the improvement of rapid intensification forecasts has accelerated,compared with years before 2018.Consensus models,operational procedures,tools and techniques,as well as recent challenging cases from 2018 to 2021 identified by operational forecast centers are described.Research needs and recommendations are also discussed.©2023 The Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration.Publishing services by Elsevier B.V.on behalf of KeAi Communication Co.Ltd.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

关 键 词：Forecast error Intensity forecast Operational forecasts Tropical cyclone 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]