Track forecast:Operational capability and new techniques-Summary from the Tenth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-10)  

作　　者：Adam Conroy Helen Titley Rabi Rivett Xiangbo Feng John Methven Kevin Hodges Alan Brammer Andrew Burton Paromita Chakraborty Guomin Chen Levi Cowan Jason Dunion Abhijit Sarkar 

机构地区：[1]Bureau of Meteorology,West Perth,Australia [2]Met Office,Exeter,UK [3]National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology,University of Reading,Reading,UK [4]Department of Meteorology,University of Reading,Reading,UK [5]Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere,Colorado State University,Fort Collins,USA [6]National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting,Noida,India [7]Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration,Shanghai,China [8]Joint Typhoon Warning Center,Honolulu,USA [9]Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies,University of Miami,and Hurricane Research Division,NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory,Miami,USA

出　　处：《Tropical Cyclone Research and Review》2023年第1期64-80,共17页热带气旋研究与评论（英文版）

摘　　要：In this paper,we summarize findings from the Tenth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones(IWTC-10)subgroup on operational track forecasting techniques and capability.The rate of improvement in the accuracy of official forecast tracks(OFTs)appears to be slowing down,at least for shorter lead times,where we may be approaching theoretical limits.Operational agencies continue to use consensus methods to produce the OFT with most continuing to rely on an unweighted consensus of four to nine NWP models.There continues to be limited use of weighted consensus techniques,which is likely a result of the skills and additional maintenance needed to support this approach.Improvements in the accuracy of ensemble mean tracks is leading to increased use of ensemble means in consensus tracks.Operational agencies are increasingly producing situation-dependent depictions of track uncertainty,rather than relying on a static depiction of track forecast certainty based on accuracy statistics from the preceding 5 years.This trend has been facilitated by the greater availability of ensemble NWP guidance,particularly vortex parameter files,and improved spread in ensembles.Despite improving spread-skill relationships,most ensemble NWP systems remain under spread.Hence many operational centers are looking to leverage“super-ensembles”(ensembles of ensembles)to ensure the full spread of location probability is captured.This is an important area of service development for multi-hazard impact-based warnings as it supports better decision making by emergency managers and the community in the face of uncertainty.©2023 The Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration.Publishing services by Elsevier B.V.on behalf of KeAi Communication Co.Ltd.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

关 键 词：Tropical cyclones Track forecasting ENSEMBLES Track uncertainty 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]