考虑认知不确定性的热防护结构瞬态温度场分析  

Transient Temperature Field Analysis of Thermal Protectio1n Structure Considering Epistemic Uncertainty

作　　者：秦强[1] 成竹[1] Qin Qiang;Cheng Zhu(National Key Laboratory of Strength and Structural Integrity,Aircraft Strength Research Institute of China,Xi’an 710065,China)

机构地区：[1]中国飞机强度研究所强度与结构完整性全国重点实验室,陕西西安710065

出　　处：《航空科学技术》2023年第5期61-66,共6页Aeronautical Science & Technology

摘　　要：瞬态温度场不确定性分析对高超声速飞行器热防护设计与评估有着重要的意义。本文考虑材料热物性参数的认知不确定性因素,提出了一种瞬态热传导温度响应的不确定性分析求解方法。首先,通过拉丁超立方抽样获得不确定性参数样本,将样本参数写入有限元计算文件中,用区间来表征参数的认知不确定性。其次,基于蒙特卡罗方法及有限元计算得到结构的不确定性瞬态温度响应曲线集。最后,以波纹夹芯热防护结构为例验证方法的可行性。研究结果表明,当结构有净热量流入时,由材料热物性参数的不确定性引起的瞬态温度响应的不确定性区间不断增大,并且瞬态温度响应的不确定性区间宽度与结构的温度变化具有正相关特点。The uncertainty analysis of transient temperature field is very important for the design and evaluation of hypersonic vehicle thermal protection.A transient thermal conduction analysis method for complex structure considering the thermophysical properties of materials with epistemic uncertainty is presented.The epistemic uncertainty parameter is characterized with interval and samples are obtained through Latin hypercube sampling.The structure of uncertainty transient thermal response curve set is obtained based on finite element analysis and Monte Carlo method and then the proposed method is validated by a corrugated core sandwich panel structure for uncertainty temperature field prediction.The results demonstrate that the uncertainty interval width of transient thermal response caused by material thermophysical parameter uncertainty increases continuously and it is positively correlated to the structure temperature changing when there is the net thermal flow into the structure.

关 键 词：认知不确定性 瞬态温度场 有限元 热防护 拉丁超立方 

分 类 号：V216.4[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]