基于改进LEC法的水利工程安全风险分级评价  

Study of safety risk grading evaluation of water conservancy project based on improved LEC method

作　　者：邵勇 陶飞飞 皮妍玲 章猛 SHAO Yong;TAO Feifei;PI Yanling;ZHANG Meng(Jiangsu Province Taihu Treatment Project Construction Management Bureau,Changzhou 213001,China;Jiangsu Water Conservancy Engineering Construction Bureau,Nanjing 210029,China;College of Computer and Information,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省太湖治理工程建设管理局,江苏常州213001 [2]江苏省水利工程建设局,江苏南京210029 [3]河海大学计算机与信息学院,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《江苏水利》2023年第6期60-65,共6页Jiangsu Water Resources

基　　金：江苏省水利科技项目(2020014)。

摘　　要：针对作业条件危险性评价法(LEC)在水利工程安全评价过程中存在的主观性较强以及危险发生的可能性影响因素考虑不充分等问题,提出一种基于LEC法改进的水利工程安全风险分级评价方法。首先基于文献分析与水利工程风险隐患,建立事故发生的可能性评估指标体系,再通过AHP-熵值法计算得到事故发生可能性各影响因素指标的综合权重,在进行专家打分时引入专家可信度得到改进后的各项指标取值,最终计算得出各项指标值以确定危险源风险等级。通过与传统LEC评价法进行对比,改进后的方法可更为客观地确定危险源风险等级,评价结果更符合实际。Aiming at the problems of risk assessment method for operating conditions(LEC)in the security assessment process of water conservancy projects,such as too strong subjectivity and insufficient consideration of the possibility of dangerous occurrence factors,a safety risk grading evaluation of water conservancy project based on the improved LEC method is proposed.First,establish an accident probability evaluation index system based on literature analysis and the risk database of a water conservancy project.Then the comprehensive weight of each influencing factor index of the accident probability is calculated through the AHP-entropy method.When the expert scoring is carried out,the expert credibility is introduced to obtain the improved values of each index,and the final calculation of the index values to determine the risk level of the hazard source.The comparison with the traditional LEC evaluation method proves that the improved method determines the hazard risk level more objectively,and the evaluation results are more realistic.

关 键 词：水利工程 安全管理 风险分级 LEC法 

分 类 号：TV698[水利工程—水利水电工程]