基于中介效应模型的中国城镇化对出口边际的影响分析  

Analysis of impact of China’s urbanization on export margin based on mediating effect model

作　　者：阚大学[1] 吕连菊[1] 姚文清 李丹阳 晏肖雅 KAN Daxue;LV Lianju;YAO Wenqing;LI Danyang;YAN Xiaoya(School of Economics and Trade;School of Business Administration,Nanchang Institute of Technology,Nanchang 330099,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌工程学院经济贸易学院 [2]南昌工程学院工商管理学院,江西南昌330099

出　　处：《南昌工程学院学报》2023年第2期74-83,共10页Journal of Nanchang Institute of Technology

基　　金：江西省社会科学基金项目(22GL56D,21JL08D);江西省高校人文社会科学项目(JJ21212,JJ18213);江西省教育科学“十四五”规划项目(21YB207);江西省水安全与可持续发展软科学研究基地项目(19JDYB03)。

摘　　要：稳出口集约边际、拓展出口广延边际对于中国稳出口、推进贸易强国建设至关重要。文章建立中介效应模型,利用系统广义矩估计法实证发现:(1)城镇化水平与质量提升均有助于提高中国出口集约边际和广延边际,城镇化水平提升更多促进了中国出口集约边际增长,城镇化质量提升更多促进了中国出口广延边际增长。(2)城镇化水平通过本地市场效应和产业结构合理化效应提高了中国出口集约边际和广延边际,城镇化质量通过要素配置效应、技术创新效应、产业集聚效应、本地市场效应、产业结构合理化效应、产业结构高级化效应提升了中国出口集约边际和广延边际。(3)城镇化水平对中国出口集约边际的促进作用大于城镇化质量对中国出口广延边际的促进作用。(4)分地区、贸易方式、行业属性和所有制特征的实证结论存在异质性。It is important for China to stabilize its export intensive margin and expand its export extensive margin so as to promote the construction of a powerful trading country.In this paper,the mediating effect model is established and the Sys-GMM method is used to make an empirical study.The results show that:(1)The urbanization level and quality are helpful in enhancing export intensive margin and extensive margin,urbanization level plays a greater role in promoting China’s export intensive margin,and urbanization quality plays a greater role in promoting China’s export extensive margin;(2)The urbanization level has promoted China’s export intensive margin and extensive margin through the home market effect and rationalization effect of industrial structure,urbanization quality has promoted China’s export intensive margin and extensive margin through the factor allocation effect,technological innovation effect,industrial agglomeration effect,home market effect,rationalization effect and upgrading effect of industrial structure;(3)The promotion effect of urbanization level on China’s export intensive margin is greater than that of urbanization quality on China’s export extensive margin;(4)The empirical results of different regions,trade patterns,industry attributes and ownership characteristics are heterogeneous.

关 键 词：城镇化 出口边际 中介效应 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]