中国历史上的国际收支估算:1550-1948  

Balance of Payments Estimates in Chinese History:1550-1948

作　　者：颜色[1] 辛星 YAN Se;XIN Xing(Guanghua School of Management,Peking University;Executive Office,China Construction Bank)

机构地区：[1]北京大学光华管理学院,北京100080 [2]中国建设银行总行办公室,北京100045

出　　处：《金融研究》2023年第3期188-206,共19页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国长期人力资本和社会结构变迁的实证研究”资助(项目批准号:71973006)。

摘　　要：国际收支对研究经济体的内部结构和对外联系意义重大,是理解一个经济体宏观状态的重要指标体系。本文旨在运用统一的、标准化的国际收支项目系统,梳理中国历史上国际收支的基本情况。通过对历史数据的挖掘、甄别和估算,形成了从明嘉靖二十九年(1550年)至1948年共计398年时间跨度、完整的中国国际收支表,并对不同历史阶段中国的国际收支特征及形成原因进行了分析。本文所做的工作为进一步深入分析中国国际收支格局的影响因素,以及国际收支情况变化对社会经济的影响提供了研究基础。The balance of payments plays an important role when studying the internal economic process of an economy and is an important indicator for understanding the macroscopic situation of an economy.By analyzing China's balance of payments,we can better understand how China's social economy is related to the global market.The formation of the balance of payments requires two basic conditions.The first condition is large-scale economic exchanges at home and abroad.The second condition is a unified settlement medium.In 1513,the Portuguese came to China for the first time to engage in trade,and they began to engage in normalized trade in China 20 or 30 years later(Li Longsheng,2005).After the middle and late Ming dynasty,with the continuous development of social economy,silver settlement became more common.In view of this,combined with various trade statistics,we selected the starting time for the study of China's balance of payments as the twenty-ninth year of Jiajing in the Ming dynasty(1550).International trade is the foundation of the balance of payments.In different historical periods,China's international trade scale,trading partners,and trade policies have differed.These differences have affected China's balance of payments.Therefore,starting from 1550,this paper divides China's balance of payments into four historical stages based on the scale and characteristics of China's international trade in different periods.The first stage was from 1550 to the demise of the Ming dynasty in 1644.During this stage,China's trading partners included Spain,Portugal,the Netherlands,and other Western countries in addition to neighboring countries.Silver was widely used in international settlements during this period,and the scale of trade began to grow and gradually form a statistically valuable relationship with the balance of payments.The second stage was from the entry of the Qing army in 1644 to the outbreak of the first Opium War in 1840,when the government limited opening up to international trade,and the current account in

关 键 词：中国对外贸易 国际收支平衡 经常账户 资本与金融账户 

分 类 号：K207[历史地理—历史学] F832.9[历史地理—中国史]