我国延伸期预报业务现状及其协同运行机制分析  

Investigation on the Current State of Extended-Range Forecast and Its Cooperative Operation System in China

作　　者：杨滟茹 邓星辰 虞越越 周玉 谈佳铭 谷金穗 Yang Yanru;Deng Xingchen;Yu Yueyue;Zhou Yu;Tan Jiaming;Gu Jinsui(School of Atmospheric Science/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education(KLME)/International Joint Laboratory on Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorology Disasters(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院/气象灾害教育部重点实验室(KLME)/气象与环境联合研究中心(ILCEC)/气象灾害预报预警与评估省部共建协同创新中心(CIC-FEMD),南京210044

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2023年第2期5-15,25,共12页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：中国气象局软科学研究项目(2021ZZXM43);国家重点研发计划(2019YFC1510201)。

摘　　要：10~30 d延伸期预报是构建“无缝隙预报”的必然要求,在防灾减灾工作和各行业气象保障服务中起着至关重要的作用。我国自2002年起,对延伸期预报业务进行了多方面的探索,但仍存在预报方法和技术不纯熟、人才队伍较薄弱、预报体制不完善等问题,当前的延伸期预报业务仍较难满足业务需求。通过文献调研法、问卷调研法、访谈调研法对比分析了国内外延伸期预报业务现状、人才队伍以及协同运行机制建设现状,提出了制约我国延伸期预报业务进一步发展的可能因素,并提出了若干对策,为延伸期预报业务相关决策提供科学的支撑和依据。As a necessary component of the seamless weather and climate forecast system,the 10-30 day extended-range forecast plays a crucial role in disaster prevention and mitigation as well as in meteorological services for various industries.Since 2002,the operational extended-range forecast has been explored from multiple aspects in China.However,because of the limitation in forecast methods and techniques,the shortage of the specialist team and the incomplete forecast system,the current extendedrange forecast cannot satisfy the demand of meteorological service.Through literature review,questionnaire and interview with experts,this study compares and analyzes the current states of operational extended-range forecast,specialist team and collaborative system and mechanism in China and at abroad,puts forward the possible factors restricting the further development of extended-range forecast in China,and offers several improvement measures.This study provides scientific support and basis for the decision-making of operational extended-range forecast.

关 键 词：延伸期预报业务 现状分析 人才队伍 协同运行机制 

分 类 号：P451[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]