黄河流域特大城市适度人口与城镇化水平测度研究——以济南市为例  

Measurement of Moderate Population and Urbanization Level of Megacities in the Y ellow River Basin--Take Jinan Gity as an Example

作　　者：王先芝 薛允刚 Wang Xianzhi;Xue yungang(School of Geography and Tourism,Qilu Normal University,Jinan 250000,China;Urban and Rural Planning Compilation Research Center,Yinan County,Linyi 276300 China)

机构地区：[1]齐鲁师范学院地理与旅游学院,山东济南250200 [2]沂南县城乡规划编制研究中心,山东临沂276300

出　　处：《齐鲁师范学院学报》2023年第3期104-113,共10页Journal of Qilu Normal University

基　　金：2022年度济南市哲学社会科学课题“黄河战略背景下济南市人口城镇化高质量发展路径研究(课题编号:JNSK22B14)”。

摘　　要：城市人口规模的合理控制和健康发展,是超大特大城市可持续发展面临的重要问题。基于适度人口理论和新型城镇化高质量发展趋势,采用可能-满意度模型测度黄河流域特大城市济南2035年适度人口规模,同时利用灰色GA-BP神经网络模型预测济南2035年的常住人口规模及城镇化发展趋势,研判适度人口规模与可能水平的差距,以更好兼顾人口与各类资源、设施之间的均衡发展。Rational control and healthy development of urban population size is a major problem of the sustainable development facing by megacities.Based on the moderate population theory and the high-quality development trend of new urbanization,the paper uses the possibility-satisfaction model to measure the moderate population size of Jinan,a megacity in the Yellow River Basin in 2035,and uses the gray GA-BP neural network model to predict the permanent population size and urbanization development trend of Jinan in 2035,and deeply studies and judges the gap between the moderate population size and the possible level,so as to better balance the development between the population,various resources and public infrastructure.

关 键 词：特大城市 适度人口 人口增长 城镇化 可能-满意度 

分 类 号：G641[文化科学—高等教育学]