基于系统动力学的城市客运交通减碳情景模拟研究  

Scenario simulation of urban passenger transportation carbon reduction based on system dynamics

作　　者：戈秋虞 徐艺诺 邱荣祖 胡喜生 张园园 刘娜翠 张兰怡 GE Qiu-Yu;XU Yi-Nuo;QIU Rong-Zu;HU Xi-Sheng;ZHANG Yuan-Yuan;LIU Na-Cui;ZHANG Lan-Yi(College of Transportation and Civil Engineering,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350108,China)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学交通与土木工程学院,福州350108

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2023年第3期357-370,共14页Climate Change Research

基　　金：福建省社科基金项目(FJ2022B065);福建农林大学“杰出青年科研人才”计划项目(社会科学类)(xjq2020S4);福建农林大学科技创新专项基金项目(KFb22101XA);福建农林大学校级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202210389344);福建省中青年教师教育科研项目(JAS21057);福建省科技创新战略研究联合项目(2022R0137)。

摘　　要：随着我国城市化和机动化的快速发展,城市客运交通已成为城市二氧化碳排放的重要来源。在“双碳”目标的大背景下,如何实现城市客运交通的减排成为人们关注的重点问题。利用北京市数据,综合考虑道路绿地和新能源汽车占比对城市客运交通碳排放的影响,建立了北京市客运交通碳排放的系统动力学模型,测算出北京市2011—2020年城市客运交通碳排放总量;根据碳达峰愿景设定了5种减排情景,并评估了不同情景在2021—2025年的减排效果。结果表明:私家车是城市客运交通碳排放的最主要贡献者;2019年城市道路绿地的年固碳量为同一时期公交车年碳排放量的28%;单情景下,北京市客运交通碳排放未能在2021—2025年间达到峰值,减排效果最佳的情景为“控制私人交通出行需求”;而北京市客运交通至少需要在两种减排情景的作用下才能在2030年前实现碳达峰。With the rapid development of urbanization and motorization in China,urban passenger transport has become a major contributor to carbon dioxide emissions.Under the background of“double carbon”,how to realize the energy conservation and emission reduction of urban passenger transport has become a focus of attention.Based on the data of Beijing,the system dynamics model of carbon emission of urban passenger transport was improved,by considering the influence of road green space and new energy vehicles on the carbon emissions,and the total carbon emissions of urban passenger transport in Beijing from 2011 to 2020 were calculated.Five emission reduction scenarios were proposed based on the carbon peak background,and the emission reduction effects of different scenarios from 2021 to 2025 were estimated.The results show that the private car is the main contributor of urban passenger transportation carbon emissions.The annual carbon sequestration of urban road green space is equivalent to about 28% of the annual carbon emissions of buses.Under single scenario,the carbon emissions of urban passenger transportation in Beijing fails to reach the peak from 2021 to 2025,and the scenario with the best emission reduction effect is“controlling private traffic travel demand”.Under double scenario,part of the combined scenario can make the carbon emissions of urban passenger transportation in Beijing reach the peak before 2030 according to the existing scenario,and the best combined scenario is“controlling private traffic travel demand”and“improving energy efficiency”.Under triple scenario,except for the combined scenarios of“promoting new energy vehicles”,“improving road carrying capacity”and“improving road greening level”,all the other combined scenarios can make urban passenger transportation in Beijing reach the carbon peak before 2030 according to the existing scenario.

关 键 词：城市客运交通 碳排放 系统动力学模型 情景分析 

分 类 号：N941.3[自然科学总论—系统科学] U12[交通运输工程] X73[环境科学与工程—环境工程]