COP27全球适应目标谈判面临的挑战及中国应对策略  

Challenges faced by the negotiation of global goal on adaptation in COP27 and China’s countermeasures

作　　者：刘硕[1,2] 李玉娥 王斌[1,2] 蔡岸冬 LIU Shuo;LI Yu-E;WANG Bin;CAI An-Dong(Institute of Environmental and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Key Laboratory of Agro-Environment and Climate Change,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京100081 [2]农业农村部农业环境重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2023年第3期389-399,共11页Climate Change Research

基　　金：生态环境部应对气候变化国际合作和履约专项“公约及巴黎协定实施细则相关适应和损失损害问题研究”(2022—2023年度);中德国际合作专项子课题“支持实施中国国家自主贡献——支持气候变化适应行动”;全球环境基金(GEF)国家层面透明度相关制度研究及能力建设项目“中国适应气候变化行动实施效果评估方法学研究”。

摘　　要：适应气候变化已成为国际气候治理的重要内容之一。2021年《联合国气候变化框架公约》(以下简称《公约》)及其《巴黎协定》启动了“格拉斯哥-沙姆沙伊赫全球适应目标工作方案(GGA工作方案)”,旨在通过系统构建适应总体概念和适应行动监测评估系统,提高全球适应行动实施力度、增强适应行动有效性及加强支持力度。2022年举行的《公约》第27次缔约方大会(COP27)针对GGA提出了新的概念性技术框架,但如何将国家层面的概念、数据、方法和指标融入全球适应治理体系,仍缺少系统方案设计,阻碍了全球适应目标谈判进展,降低了《巴黎协定》在适应行动与支持匹配度分析结论的可靠性,削弱了评估发达国家向发展中国家提供适应支持的履约进展的准确性。针对此问题,文中梳理了COP27 GGA工作方案最新谈判进展、国家或集团提案及适应委员会技术报告,识别适应概念、指标和方法的关键技术难点,通过分析《公约》机制下全球环境基金和技术领域的适应资金占比,确定了当前支持适应行动的资金占比不足30%,并识别了现有全球适应分析工具在支撑适应需求评估方面面临的不足。同时基于中国适应战略提出的国家需求,分别针对适应概念体系不完善、缺少适应行动监测和评估方法及指标体系,以及缺少可用于汇总国内信息并提交国际社会履约的报告规范这3个主要技术短板,构建了相应的解决方案和技术路径,为应对今后中国制定谈判对策、增强国内适应工作成效提供技术参考。Adapting to climate change has become one of the important contents of international climate governance.In 2021,the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)and its Paris Agreement launched the“Glasgow-Sharm el-Sheikh Work Programme on Global Goal on Adaptation(GGA Work Programme)”,which aims to improve the implementation of global adaptation actions,enhance the effectiveness of adaptation actions and strengthen support through the systematic construction of the overall concept of adaptation and the monitoring and evaluation system of adaptation actions.The 27th UNFCCC conference of the Parties held in 2022 proposed a new conceptual technical framework for GGA.However,how to integrate the concepts,data,methods and indicators at the national level into the global adaptation governance system is still lack of systematic scheme design,which hinders the progress of the negotiation of the GGA,reduces the reliability of the conclusions of the Paris Agreement on the matching of adaptation actions and support,and weakens the assessment accuracy of the progress of the implementation of adaptation support provided by developed countries to developing countries.In response to this problem,this study analysis the latest negotiation progress of the COP27 GGA work program,national or group proposals and the technical report of the Adaptation Committee were combed,the key technical difficulties of the concept,indicators and methods of adaptation were identified,and a result that the current proportion of funds to support adaptation actions is less than 30% was determined by analyzing the proportion of adaptation funds in the GEF and technology fields under the UNFCCC mechanism.The study also presents the challenges on existing global adaptation analysis tools in supporting adaptation needs assessment.At the same time,based on the national needs put forward by China’s adaptation strategy,the corresponding solutions and technical paths have been constructed for three main technical weaknesses,namely,the

关 键 词：全球适应目标 国际谈判 挑战 需求 解决路径 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]