比较优势分工视角下区域间贸易对中国碳排放的影响评估  

Evaluation of the Impacts of Interregional Trade on China’s Carbon Emissions from the Perspective of Production Division Following Comparative Advantage

作　　者：李玉婷 葛明[1,2] 高远东[1,2] LI Yuting;GE Ming;GAO Yuandong(Center for Inclusive Finance and Agricultural&Rural Development,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China;College of Economics and Management,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China)

机构地区：[1]西南大学普惠金融与农业农村发展研究中心,重庆400715 [2]西南大学经济管理学院,重庆400715

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2023年第6期64-80,共17页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究基金青年项目“中国绿色创新效率的空间分异、关联与制度供给研究”(18YJC 790092);重庆市社会科学规划一般项目“重庆政府引导基金促进创新的作用机理及效应研究”(2020YBJJ63);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目“中国城乡相对贫困的长效治理机制研究”(SWU2109209)。

摘　　要：既有研究注意到了碳转移,但未能充分关注区域间贸易是否具有碳减排作用。基于比较优势分工视角构建了区域间贸易对碳排放影响的综合性核算框架,借助MRIO、贸易情景假设及SDA分析法,利用2012年和2017年中国区域间投入产出数据,估计了区域间贸易通过不同机制对全国及各省份碳排放的影响,并对贸易类型进行了区分。研究结果显示:第一,区域间贸易大幅降低了中国碳排放总量,多数省份实现了碳减排,符合比较优势原理推论。第二,区域间贸易通过碳替代和碳转移两种机制影响地区碳排放,碳替代机制发挥了碳减排主要作用,碳转移机制增排和减排的影响相当。第三,从贸易类型看,中间品和最终品两类贸易都产生了积极减排贡献,中间品贸易的碳减排贡献较大。第四,从变化趋势看,中间品贸易结构低碳化发展已成为驱动全国及各省份碳减排的重要因素,而最终品贸易结构未呈现出低碳化趋势。据此提出了政策建议,期望为推动贸易的高质量发展以及实现“双碳”目标提供参考。Existing studies focus on carbon transfer,but do not give enough attention to whether the interregional trade has the effect of carbon emission reduction.From the perspective of production division following comparative advantage,this article first theoretically analyzes the influencing mechanisms of interregional trade on regional carbon emissions,and discusses the possibility and conditions that the interregional trade can reduce both overall and each region’s carbon emissions.Then,based on theoretical analyses,it builds a comprehensive framework to evaluate the impacts of interregional trade on carbon emissions.Specifically,by applying MRIO,trade scenario assumptions and SDA methods,and using China’s interregional input-output data in 2012 and 2017,it measures the impacts of interregional trade on China’s and provinces’carbon emissions,namely carbon substitution effect,carbon transfer effect and carbon total effect.Besides,a distinction between the intermediate products trade and the final products trade is made and taken into consideration.Results show that:The interregional trade has significantly reduced China’s carbon emissions,which supports the deduction from the theory of comparative advantage.The total carbon effects of interregional trade show that,China’s total carbon emission has been reduced by 20%and 19 out of 31 provinces have achieved carbon emission reduction during the sample period.Further examination on the real interregional trade data finds that characteristics of China’s interregional trade satisfy production division following comparative advantage which justifies the theoretical basis.Meanwhile,there are some problems worth noticing,such as some provinces are not active in the interregional trade and some provinces produce high carbon emissions while earn low economic benefits.Between the carbon transfer and the carbon substitution mechanisms,the carbon substitution effect of the interregional trade has greater impact.The carbon transfer effects are opposite for net export

关 键 词：比较优势 区域间贸易 碳排放 碳转移 碳替代 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易] X196[经济管理—产业经济]