成渝城市群碳排放时空趋势特征及影响因素分析  

Temporal and Spatial Trend of Carbon Emission and Its Influencing Factor in Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration

作　　者：王子钒 蔡雨微 罗仕伟[1] 杨永丰[1] WANG Zifan;CAI Yuwei;LUO Shiwei;YANG Yongfeng(College of Geography and Tourism,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 401331,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院,重庆401331

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2023年第4期205-215,共11页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：重庆市教育规划课题重点项目(K22YC205039);重庆市研究生科研创新项目(CYS21276);重庆市高等教育学会2021-2022年度高等教育科学研究课题(CQGJ21B023)。

摘　　要：县域是中国经济发展与减排治理的基本单元,而成渝城市群作为中国西南地区经济发展的新极点,是潜在的碳排放增长区,研究并揭示城市群县域碳排放时空演变特征与影响因素对区域差异治理与“双碳”目标的实现具有重要意义。文章使用成渝城市群2008-2017年县域碳排放数据通过空间数据,在考虑区域范围差异的前提下探究其时空演变特征与影响机制,结果表明:(1)2008-2017年成渝城市群县域碳排放量整体呈上升趋势,增长过程大致分为快速抬升-缓慢上升-高位波动3个阶段,并以2011年为主要分界点整体呈现出“先快后慢,波动涨幅”的增长态势。(2)县域碳排放具有明显的东北-西南向差异,空间极值化趋势明显。高-高集聚区县集中在重庆、成都城市群内;低-低集聚的区县数量稳定,主要集中在成渝城市群西南部。城市群整体呈现出较为明显的空间撕裂状态。(3)在单因子分析中,前期地区生产总值、第二产业产值与政府财政支出对区县碳排放的影响程度最高,随时间推移年末人口总数、人均地区生产总值和城镇化率的影响程度逐渐上升并跃居前位。交互因子探测结果显示,区县碳排放增长是多种影响因子综合作用的结果,地区生产总值自始至终是影响县域碳排放的主导因子。鉴于城市群内各区县的现实基础与发展阶段存在差异,因此制定措施需具体分析,而通过科技进步约束碳排强度是无论区县经济发达与否均可有效实现的治理途径。County territory is the basic unit of economic development and pollutant emission reduction and governance in China.As a new main pole of economic development in southwest China,the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration becomes a potential carbon emission growth region.So,it is of important interests to probe into the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of carbon emissions and the factors that will affect the realization of the governance of regional differences and the goal of"dual carbon"(carbon capping and carbon neutralization)in the urban agglomeration.This study intends to explore the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing mechanism by spatial data analysis based on the countylevel carbon emission data of the period from 2008 to 2017,considering regional difference of the agglomeration.The findings-indicated that during that period,carbon emission tended to increase in the urban agglomeration on the whole,the growth process could be roughly divided into three stages:fast growing initially,then turning slow,and at late growth tended fluctuating.The spatial characteristics of carbon emissions in the urban agglomeration area presented a remarkable difference beween the northeast and the southwest(carbon emission in northeast part being greater than in southwest)and the spatial extreme trend was evident.The high-high(population)concentration regions situated in the urban agglomeration of Chongqing and Chengdu cities;the number of low-low agglomeration regions remained stable,mainly concentrated in the southwest part of the urban agglomeration.So the urban agglomeration presented a relatively remarkable spatial tearing state.According to the single-factor analysis,the GDP,output value of the secondary industry and the government financial expenditure in the earlier years exerted the greatest impact on the carbon emissions,nethertheless with the elapse of time,the impacts of the total population,per capita regional GDP and urbanization rate gradually went up and finally jumping over

关 键 词：成渝城市群 县域 时空演变 空间集聚 影响因素 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]