基于贝叶斯网络的机械产品再设计构件变更概率研究  

Research on Component Change Probabilities in Redesign of Mechanical Products Based on Bayesian Network

作　　者：王琪旸 邓益民[1,2] WANC Qiyang;DENG Yimin(Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Mechanics,Ningbo University,Ningbo Zhejiang 315211,China;Zhejiang Provincial Key Lab of Part Rolling Technology,Ningbo Zhejiang 315211,China)

机构地区：[1]宁波大学机械工程与力学学院,浙江宁波315211 [2]浙江省零件轧制成型技术研究重点实验室,浙江宁波315211

出　　处：《机械设计与研究》2023年第2期1-4,11,共5页Machine Design And Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51375246)。

摘　　要：为了对机械产品再设计时构件的变更风险进行量化评估,并为不同变更方案的设计复杂度评估提供依据,提出了一种基于贝叶斯网的构件变更概率计算方法。首先,参考FBS(Function-Behavior-Structure)理论,从功能、行为、结构三个层面对构件间的关联关系进行分析,建立机械产品构件的二级网络模型以描述构件间的关联关系。然后,对机械产品的变更情况建立贝叶斯网,根据构件间的关联关系确定了贝叶斯网的结构,通过数据分析确定了贝叶斯网的参数,并基于贝叶斯网的查询推理求得各构件的变更概率。最后,结合共享单车发生设计变更的实例,验证了该方法的可行性。In order to assess the risks of component changes quantitatively during mechanical product redesign,as well as to provide a basis for designers to evaluate the design complexity of different change schemes,a calculation method of component change probabilities based on Bayesian network is proposed.Firstly,by referring to the FBS(Function-Behavior-Structure)theory,the relation between components is analyzed from three aspects,including function,behavior and structure,and a two-level network model for components of the mechanical product is established to describe the component relation.After that,the Bayesian network for the component changes is built up,where the structure of the Bayesian network is determined according to the component relation,and the parameters of the Bayesian network is determined through the relevant data analysis.And the change probabilities of components are calculated based on the query inference of the Bayesian network.Finally,the feasibility of the proposed method is verified by a redesign case of shared bicycles.

关 键 词：机械产品 贝叶斯网络 变更传播 变更概率 变更风险评估 

分 类 号：TH122[机械工程—机械设计及理论]