2011—2021年四川省传染病自动预警系统聚集性疫情预警情况分析  

Analysis on the early warning of aggregated epidemic situation by the automatic early warning system of infectious diseases in Sichuan Province from 2011 to 2021

作　　者：张云娜[1] 李蔚 李羚[1] 马瑶 刘燕 杜飞[1] ZHANG Yun-na;LI Wei;LI Ling;MA Yao;LIU Yan;DU Fei(Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan Province,China.)

机构地区：[1]四川省疾病预防控制中心,成都610041

出　　处：《预防医学情报杂志》2023年第5期487-492,共6页Journal of Preventive Medicine Information

基　　金：四川省疾病预防控制中心自立课题(项目编号:ZX202110)。

摘　　要：目的了解四川省2011—2021年传染病自动预警系统对聚集性疫情的预警情况,为完善和优化预警系统提供依据。方法回顾性分析2011—2021年四川省预警系统对聚集性疫情的预警情况,研究不同年份、不同传染病的预警信号有效率、预警信号阳性率和预警灵敏度等。采用卡方检验进行率的比较,采用Pearson相关分析分析疑似事件数、暴发/流行数、预警灵敏度等与预警信号数之间的关系,检验水准为α=0.05。结果2011—2020年四川省共收到预警信号147979条,其中1550条(1.05%)判定为疑似事件;235条(0.16%)经现场调查后核实为暴发/流行。预警信号有效率最高的市州为南充市(4.58%),最低的为达州市(0.04%)。2011—2020年预警信号数较多的传染病为其它感染性腹泻病(50281条)、手足口病(33664条)、流行性腮腺炎(23335条)和流行性感冒(14471条),占全部预警信号的82.28%。4种传染病的预警信号有效率依次为0.19%、1.57%、2.22%和1.78%,预警灵敏度依次为35.48%、60.00%、92.54%和85.37%。197起预警相关的传染病突发事件相关信息中有151起(76.65%)预警系统发出了预警信号,有73起(48.34%)在疫情网络报告前进行了预警。结论传染病自动预警信息系统在四川省运行良好,一定程度上实现传染病疫情早期探测功能。但还应进一步优化预警模型,合理设置预警参数,减少无效预警,提高预警灵敏度。Objective To understand the early warning situation of aggregated epidemic by the automatic early warning system of infectious diseases in Sichuan Province from 2011 to 2021,and to provide basis for improving and optimizing the early warning system.Methods A retrospective analysis was made on the early warning of aggregated epidemic by the automatic early warning system in Sichuan Province from 2011 to 2021.Efficiency,positive rate and sensitivity of early warning signals of different years and different infectious diseases were studied.Chi-square test was used to compare the rates,and Pearson correlation analysis was used to analyze the relationship between the number of suspected events,the number of outbreaks/epidemics,the sensitivity of early warning and the number of warning signals.The test level wasα=0.05.Results From 2011 to 2020,Sichuan Province received 147979 early warning signals,of which 1550(1.05%)were judged as suspected events and 235(0.16%)were verified as outbreaks/epidemics after field investigation.Nanchong City(4.58%)had the highest efficiency of early warning signals and Dazhou City(0.04%)had the lowest.From 2011 to 2020,the infectious diseases with the largest number of early warning signals was other infectious diarrhea diseases(50281),followed by hand-foot-mouth disease(33664),mumps(23335)and influenza(14471),accounting for 82.28%of all the early warning signals.The efficiency of early warning signals of the four infectious diseases mentioned above were 0.19%,1.57%,2.22%and 1.78%,and the sensitivity of early warning signals was 35.48%,60.00%,92.54%and 85.37%,respectively.Among the 197 early warning related infectious disease emergencies,151(76.65%)the early warning system sent out early warning signals,and 73(48.34%)an alert was issued prior to the epidemic network report.Conclusions The automatic early warning information system of infectious diseases runs well in Sichuan Province and realizes the function of early detection of infectious diseases to a certain extent.However,the early w

关 键 词：传染病 聚集性疫情 预警 灵敏度 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]