基于贝叶斯网络的隧道勘察设计期大变形灾害概率分级预测与应用研究  

Probabilistic Classification Prediction of Tunnel Squeezing Based on Bayesian Network and Its Application during Investigation and Design Stage

作　　者：张志强[1] 范俊奇 曾鹏 石晓燕 李天斌[1] 聂宇 张振宏 Zhang Zhiqiang;Fan Junqi;Zeng Peng;Shi Xiaoyan;Li Tianbin;Nie Yu;Zhang Zhenhong(College of Environment and Civil Engineering,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,China;Institute of National Defense Engineering,Academy of Military Sciences,Luoyang 471023,China;Sichuan Intelligent Expressway Technology Co.Ltd.,Chengdu 610041,China)

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学环境与土木工程学院,四川成都610059 [2]军事科学院国防工程研究所,河南洛阳471023 [3]四川智慧高速科技有限公司,四川成都610041

出　　处：《地球科学》2023年第5期1923-1934,共12页Earth Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(Nos.U19A20111,42130719);四川省科技厅科技计划项目(No.2021JDR0399).

摘　　要：我国西南山区的铁路和公路隧道在遭遇高地应力、软岩和断层破碎带等不良地质条件时常发生挤压大变形灾害,带来巨大的经济损失.从隧道工程勘察设计期的实际需求出发,考虑该阶段预测指标的易获取性,以隧道埋深、围岩级别、等效洞径和岩石强度作为预测指标;搜集建立了以我国西南地区隧道工程为主的包含151组大变形案例的数据库.采用贝叶斯网络模型建立了不完整数据条件下隧道挤压大变形灾害概率分级预测模型,通过十折交叉验证确定模型准确率为76.52%.基于该模型研发了一款大变形分级预测软件平台,并在九绵高速公路白马隧道开展应用,预测准确率达71.11%.本研究成果可为我国西南地区类似地质环境条件下隧道勘察设计期大变形灾害预测提供技术支撑.Railway and highway tunnels located in southwest mountainous areas of China often suffer from tunnel squeezing due to high geo-stress,soft rock and fault fracture zone,which bring huge economic losses.To fulfill the requirements of tunnel alignment and design,considering the accessibility of prediction indexes in this stage,the buried depth,surrounding rock grade,equivalent tunnel diameter and rock strength were taken as prediction indexes.Data containing 151 groups of tunnel squeezing cases were collected and a database was established based on tunnels located in Southwest China.The Bayesian network was used to establish the probability classification prediction model of tunnel squeezing with incomplete data.The accuracy of the model was found to be 76.52%by ten-fold cross validation.Based on this model,the tunnel squeezing classification prediction software platform was established.It was applied in Baima tunnel of Jiu-Mian Expressway.The prediction accuracy was 71.11%.The research results of this paper can provide a technical support for the prediction of tunnel squeezing during investigation and design stage under similar geological conditions in Southwest China.

关 键 词：高地应力隧道 勘察设计阶段 大变形灾害 贝叶斯网络 概率分级预测 工程地质. 

分 类 号：P642[天文地球—工程地质学]