我国青贮玉米饲料价格波动的影响因素分析  

Analysis of influencing factors of silage corn feed price fluctuation in China

作　　者：王春凤 沈曼君 WANG Chun-feng;SHEN Man-jun

机构地区：[1]江苏开放大学,江苏南京210036 [2]河海大学,江苏南京210036

出　　处：《饲料研究》2023年第9期182-186,共5页Feed Research

摘　　要：青贮玉米饲料价格波动会影响农民养殖积极性,降低农业资源配置效率。文章借助VAR模型,对2005—2021年青贮玉米饲料价格月度数据样本展开实证分析。结果显示,青贮玉米饲料自身价格对青贮玉米饲料价格波动影响最大。从供给视角分析,青贮玉米饲料价格波动的主要影响因素是豆粕价格、肉牛存栏量和羊肉价格。从需求视角分析,乡村居民均可支配收入是影响青贮玉米饲料价格的主要因素。研究表明,文章提出完善动态监测预警系统、推进市场结构性改革、强化产业链抗风险能力的对策,可以助力我国草食畜牧业的发展。The fluctuation of silage corn feed price will affect farmers'breeding enthusiasm,reduce the efficiency of agricultural resource allocation.With the help of VAR model,the paper made an empirical analysis of the monthly data samples of silage corn feed price from 2005 to 2021.The results showed that the price of silage corn feed itself had the greatest impact on price fluctuation of silage corn feed.From the perspective of supply,the main factor that affect the price of silage corn feed include soybean meal price,beef cattle inventory and mutton price.From the perspective of demand,rural dweller per capital disposable income was the main factor that affects the price of silage corn feed.The research shows that the paper puts forward some countermeasures to improve the dynamic monitoring and early warning system,promote the structural reform of the market,strengthen the anti-risk ability of the industrial chain,to help the development of herbivorous animal husbandry in China.

关 键 词：青贮玉米饲料 VAR模型 价格波动 

分 类 号：S8-9[农业科学—畜牧兽医]